Hamburg Germany Clay Atp 500 Round of 16

Daniel Altmaier vs Ben Shelton: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Daniel Altmaier

Rank: #64
26%
VS

Ben Shelton

Rank: #6
74%
Expected Total Games: 26.5
Predicted Winner: Ben Shelton

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Player Metrics

Daniel Altmaier

Form Index: 30.6
ELO Rating: 1523.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1505.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 100.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 12.6
Clay: 19.1
Grass: 11.2
Serve Rating: 96.2
Return Rating: 92.8

Ben Shelton

Form Index: 31.3
ELO Rating: 1841.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1909.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 138.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 43.9
Clay: 31.2
Grass: 38.9
Serve Rating: 95.9
Return Rating: 85.0

Recent Matches

Daniel Altmaier

Ben Shelton

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Daniel Altmaier
vs
0
Ben Shelton
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At Hamburg (Germany), in the round of 16 on clay at a 500-level event, Ben Shelton is favored to advance against Daniel Altmaier. The model projects Shelton to win with a 74.05% probability to Altmaier’s 25.95%, and expects about 26.52 total games in the match.

Match Analysis

Shelton brings the higher ranking (6) and a substantially stronger Elo (1840.95 vs 1523.49), while Altmaier sits at rank 64. Both players show similar short-term form indices (Altmaier 30.56, Shelton 31.27), but their surface strength differs: Shelton’s clay index (31.17) is notably higher than Altmaier’s (19.09). Fatigue is a factor — Shelton has 138 minutes on court at this event compared with Altmaier’s 100 — which could influence late-match legs on slow clay. Altmaier’s mean return index (92.78) is materially better than Shelton’s (84.99), a gap worth noting given the surface and its reward for consistent returning. Recent results underline contrasting momentum. Altmaier arrives after a straight-sets win over Rinky Hijikata in Hamburg, bookended by a hard loss to Alexander Zverev in Rome and a prior win over Zhizhen Zhang. Shelton also won his Hamburg opener (over Marcos Giron in three sets) but had two tough losses at recent Masters events; his matches there were long and physically demanding. Overall, Shelton’s higher baseline ratings and clay comfort give him the edge despite heavier minutes.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 26.5 Most likely outcome: 26 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Daniel Altmaier versus Ben Shelton. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Daniel Altmaier versus Ben Shelton. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Daniel Altmaier - Ben Shelton) -2.7 Most likely spread: -3 (Ben Shelton wins 3 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Daniel Altmaier versus Ben Shelton. Positive values indicate Daniel Altmaier winning more games, negative values indicate Ben Shelton winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Daniel Altmaier versus Ben Shelton. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this clash sits at about 11.94 total, with a predicted aces figure tempered by clay’s slower, higher bounce. The double faults prediction is modestly elevated — expected double faults around 4.23 — reflecting longer points and accumulated fatigue. Neither player has a dramatically superior serve index, so the predicted aces are more a function of surface and match length than an overwhelming serving advantage.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 11.9 Most likely: 11 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 4.2 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Daniel Altmaier versus Ben Shelton. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Daniel Altmaier versus Ben Shelton. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Daniel Altmaier versus Ben Shelton. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Daniel Altmaier versus Ben Shelton. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

45.9% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Daniel Altmaier's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (46.7%)
Probability distribution of the final set score from Daniel Altmaier's perspective. Format: BO3.

Final Prediction

Shelton’s superior ranking, Elo and marginally better clay profile account for the projected edge. Watch how Altmaier’s high return index challenges Shelton’s serve early; success returning could be the key variable that narrows the gap.

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