Winston Salem NC, U.S.A. Hard Atp 250 Round of 32

Daniel Altmaier vs Francisco Comesana: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Daniel Altmaier

Rank: #65
52%
VS

Francisco Comesana

Rank: #109
48%
Expected Total Games: 25.2
Predicted Winner: Daniel Altmaier

Why the Model Favors Daniel Altmaier

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent form +5.1 Daniel Altmaier
Serve & return game +3.1 Francisco Comesana
Surface fit +2.3 Daniel Altmaier
Recent record by level +2.1 Francisco Comesana
Overall record & opposition quality +1.6 Francisco Comesana

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 52% for Daniel Altmaier. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Also available in Claude and Perplexity. Query these predictions in plain language: our native connector lets your AI assistant call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Player Metrics

Daniel Altmaier

Form Index: 41.0
ELO Rating: 1601.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1626.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 16.2
Clay: 20.0
Grass: 10.1
Serve Rating: 96.1
Return Rating: 86.9

Francisco Comesana

Form Index: 38.8
ELO Rating: 1559.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1581.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 86.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 16.1
Clay: 22.7
Grass: 4.2
Serve Rating: 95.6
Return Rating: 87.0

Recent Matches

Daniel Altmaier

Francisco Comesana

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Daniel Altmaier
vs
1
Francisco Comesana
Hard
1 - 0
Clay
0 - 1
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At Winston-Salem in North Carolina, this round of 32 hard court match projects to be a close affair in the 250-level event. The model favors Daniel Altmaier to win with a 51.74% chance versus Francisco Comesana at 48.26%. The match is expected to be short to medium length with about 25.18 total games.

Match Analysis

The model’s edge for Altmaier comes mainly from recent form and a slightly better fit to the hard surface, while Comesana draws support from serve and return metrics and recent results at higher levels. Altmaier carries a higher Elo at 1601.21 and a marginally better form index (41.00 versus 38.77). His surface strength index is 16.18 compared with Comesana’s 16.09, a small advantage that still contributes to the model. Altmaier also enters this match with zero minutes of fatigue from the event, which matters late in the season. Comesana’s case rests on close serve and return figures and competitive recent results against tougher opposition. His Elo is 1559.77 and his mean serve and return indices are nearly identical to Altmaier’s (serve index 95.65 versus 96.07, return index 87.03 versus 86.93). Comesana has a confidence-boosting straight sets win here in Winston-Salem over Yibing Wu, and his recent high-level matches include long encounters that demonstrate durability. Fatigue is a factor; he has 86 minutes on court in this tournament. Both players show mixed form across their last three outings. Altmaier is 1-2 with a solid win over Coleman Wong and two losses to top opponents. Comesana is also 1-2 but arrives on a win locally and two prior deep, physical matches that cost time on court.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 25.2 Most likely outcome: 24 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Daniel Altmaier versus Francisco Comesana. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Daniel Altmaier versus Francisco Comesana. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Daniel Altmaier - Francisco Comesana) +0.1 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Daniel Altmaier versus Francisco Comesana. Positive values indicate Daniel Altmaier winning more games, negative values indicate Francisco Comesana winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Daniel Altmaier versus Francisco Comesana. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is 14.66 total aces, with predicted aces splitting 6.91 for Altmaier and 8.28 for Comesana. The expected double faults are 6.31 total, with 3.01 from Altmaier and 3.32 from Comesana. On a medium-paced hard court, predicted aces are moderate when compared with grass or clay. Serve ratings are almost identical, and the per player ace projections reflect that small gap (6.91 versus 8.28). The expected double faults suggest both players will have occasional serve lapses.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 14.7 Most likely: 13 aces Per player: Daniel Altmaier 6.9 + Francisco Comesana 8.3
Expected Total Double Faults 6.3 Most likely: 5 double faults Per player: Daniel Altmaier 3.0 + Francisco Comesana 3.3

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Daniel Altmaier versus Francisco Comesana. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Daniel Altmaier versus Francisco Comesana. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

🎯 Aces by Player

Daniel Altmaier

Expected 6.9 aces

Probability distribution for the aces Daniel Altmaier serves in this match.
Francisco Comesana

Expected 8.3 aces

Probability distribution for the aces Francisco Comesana serves in this match.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Daniel Altmaier versus Francisco Comesana. The chart shows the predicted probability for each double-fault count.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Daniel Altmaier versus Francisco Comesana. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

Double Faults by Player

Daniel Altmaier

Expected 3.0 double faults

Probability distribution for the double faults Daniel Altmaier serves in this match.
Francisco Comesana

Expected 3.3 double faults

Probability distribution for the double faults Francisco Comesana serves in this match.

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

45.4% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Daniel Altmaier's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (29.1%)
Probability distribution of the final set score from Daniel Altmaier's perspective. Format: BO3.

Final Prediction

Altmaier’s narrow edge is driven chiefly by recent form and freshness on site. The key factor to watch will be service holds and return efficiency early in sets, since breaks are likely to decide this tight matchup.

Get Daily Tennis Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven tennis predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel