Shanghai Shanghai Hard Masters 1000 Round of 128

Holger Rune vs Daniel Altmaier Prediction

Holger Rune

Rank: #195
71%
VS

Daniel Altmaier

Rank: #67
29%
Expected Total Games: 23.8
Predicted Winner: Holger Rune

Why the Model Favors Holger Rune

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent record by level +7.6 Holger Rune
Serve & return game +5.4 Holger Rune
Recent form +4.3 Holger Rune
Surface fit +3.5 Holger Rune
Overall record & opposition quality +2.5 Daniel Altmaier

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 71% for Holger Rune. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Also available in Claude and Perplexity. Query these predictions in plain language: our native connector lets your AI assistant call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Ranking Trends

Holger Rune

  • Current #195 2026-10-05
  • 3 mo ago #77 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #29 2026-04-06
  • 9 mo ago #15 2026-01-05
  • 12 mo ago #11 2025-09-29

Daniel Altmaier

  • Current #67 2026-10-05
  • 3 mo ago #61 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #49 2026-04-06
  • 9 mo ago #44 2026-01-05
  • 12 mo ago #49 2025-09-29

Player Metrics

Holger Rune

Form Index: 38.8
ELO Rating: 1732.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1701.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 31.0
Clay: 36.6
Grass: 20.1
Serve Rating: 96.8
Return Rating: 89.7

Daniel Altmaier

Form Index: 27.1
ELO Rating: 1538.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1602.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 11.6
Clay: 20.0
Grass: 10.1
Serve Rating: 95.2
Return Rating: 85.1

Recent Matches

Holger Rune
❌ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

Daniel Altmaier
❌ ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Jie Cui (0-2) hard Beijing 77 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Zachary Svajda (1-3) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Ignacio Buse (0-2) hard Winston Salem 135 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Francisco Comesana (2-0) hard Winston Salem 95 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Lorenzo Musetti (0-2) hard Cincinnati 89 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Holger Rune
vs
0
Daniel Altmaier
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Rune is favored at 71%, with Altmaier at 29%, and the match is projected to last 23.8 games. In this Shanghai Round of 128 match, the hard court suits Rune better.

Match Analysis

Rune’s stronger hard-court fit and more effective serve-and-return game give him the practical advantage. His stronger return should help him put pressure on Altmaier’s service games, while his own serve is also rated slightly higher. Rune’s record against comparable opposition is another point in his favor. Neither arrives on a winning run: Altmaier has lost three straight, most recently to Jie Cui, while Rune’s last three include a win over Tomas Martin Etcheverry.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.8 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Holger Rune - Daniel Altmaier) +1.7 Most likely spread: +1 (Holger Rune wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Rune is projected to hit 6.3 aces and 3.1 double faults, compared with 5.8 aces and 3.3 double faults for Altmaier. Their serve strengths are relatively close, which fits the narrow projected gap in aces, though Rune has a slight advantage.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 11.9 Most likely: 10 aces Per player: Holger Rune 6.3 + Daniel Altmaier 5.8
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.3 Most likely: 5 double faults Per player: Holger Rune 3.1 + Daniel Altmaier 3.2

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Holger Rune

Expected 6.3 aces

Daniel Altmaier

Expected 5.8 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Holger Rune

Expected 3.1 double faults

Daniel Altmaier

Expected 3.2 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

38.4% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Holger Rune's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (38.5%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Altmaier’s stronger overall record against quality opposition is the main counterweight to Rune’s hard-court and return advantages. If Altmaier can make that experience count in the longer exchanges, he has a path to upset the forecast.

Get Daily Tennis Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven tennis predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel