Bucharest Romania Clay Atp 250 Round of 32

Daniel Altmaier vs Pedro Martinez: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Daniel Altmaier

Rank: #52
54%
VS

Pedro Martinez

Rank: #113
46%
Expected Total Games: 22.5
Predicted Winner: Daniel Altmaier

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Player Metrics

Daniel Altmaier

Form Index: 22.5
ELO Rating: 1456.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1328.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 50.3
Clay: 42.2
Grass: 40.9
Serve Rating: 75.6
Return Rating: 70.1

Pedro Martinez

Form Index: 39.4
ELO Rating: 1528.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1462.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 48.6
Clay: 37.5
Grass: 42.0
Serve Rating: 96.9
Return Rating: 92.2

Recent Matches

Daniel Altmaier

  • Last Match: vs Terence Atmane (0-2) hard Miami 67 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Miomir Kecmanovic (0-2) hard Indian Wells 61 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (0-2) hard Acapulco 94 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Dusan Lajovic (0-2) clay Rio 121 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo (0-2) clay Buenos Aires 87 min

Pedro Martinez

  • Last Match: vs Francisco Comesana (1-2) clay Santiago 171 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Damir Dzumhur (1-1) clay Rio 159 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Luciano Darderi (0-2) clay Buenos Aires 91 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo (2-0) clay Buenos Aires 123 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Lautaro Midon (2-0) clay Buenos Aires 95 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Daniel Altmaier
vs
0
Pedro Martinez
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In Bucharest's clay court event, round of 32 action pits Daniel Altmaier against Pedro Martinez in a 250-level tournament in Romania. The model gives Altmaier the edge — predicted winner Daniel Altmaier 53.53% vs Pedro Martinez 46.47% — with an expected total of 22.48 games, suggesting a relatively short affair.

Match Analysis

Altmaier arrives as the higher-ranked player (No. 52) with a modest form index of 22.55 and an Elo of 1456.50; his surface strength sits at 42.19. He shows strong serving metrics by his mean serve index (75.59) and a solid return index (70.09). Martinez, ranked 113, actually carries the higher Elo (1528.58) and a better recent form index (39.36), though his surface strength is slightly lower at 37.54. Fatigue is listed at 0.0 for both, so neither brings accumulated minutes into this match. The serving and returning contrasts are striking: Martinez’s mean serve index (96.94) exceeds Altmaier’s by over 21 points, and his mean return index (92.17) is likewise about 22 points higher — both differences well above the 5-point threshold and notable for match dynamics. Recent results for both players show trouble finding wins: Altmaier’s last three outings (all on hard courts) are straight-set defeats, while Martinez’s last three (all on clay) include long, physically demanding matches but without victories. Those patterns help explain a tightly poised projection despite Altmaier’s higher ranking.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 22.5 Most likely outcome: 22 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Daniel Altmaier versus Pedro Martinez. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Daniel Altmaier versus Pedro Martinez. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Daniel Altmaier - Pedro Martinez) +0.2 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Daniel Altmaier versus Pedro Martinez. Positive values indicate Daniel Altmaier winning more games, negative values indicate Pedro Martinez winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Daniel Altmaier versus Pedro Martinez. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction sits at 17.78 total for the match with a double faults prediction of 5.89 expected double faults. On clay, slower ball speed and higher bounce usually suppress aces and can increase double faults in longer rallies; that surface effect tempers the predicted aces. Martinez’s much higher serve rating suggests he’s the primary driver of the predicted aces, while both players’ play on clay informs the double faults prediction.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 17.8 Most likely: 17 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 5.9 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Daniel Altmaier versus Pedro Martinez. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Daniel Altmaier versus Pedro Martinez. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Daniel Altmaier versus Pedro Martinez. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Daniel Altmaier versus Pedro Martinez. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

Final Prediction

Altmaier’s higher ranking and balanced serve/return indices give him a narrow edge, but the projection is close because Martinez posts superior Elo and markedly stronger serve and return metrics. Key factor to watch: whether Martinez’s big-serving profile can translate into short service holds on slow clay or whether Altmaier’s baseline balance will neutralize that advantage.

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