Australian Open Australia Hard Grand Slam Round of 128

Daniil Medvedev vs Jesper de Jong: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Daniil Medvedev

Rank: #13
74%
VS

Jesper de Jong

Rank: #71
26%
Expected Total Games: 37.7
Predicted Winner: Daniil Medvedev

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Player Metrics

Daniil Medvedev

Form Index: 68.2
ELO Rating: 2710.2
Glicko2 Rating: 2006.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 13.7
Clay: 20.8
Grass: 21.0
Serve Rating: 67.6
Return Rating: 53.2

Jesper de Jong

Form Index: 13.8
ELO Rating: 737.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1548.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 20.6
Clay: 20.8
Grass: 14.1
Serve Rating: 97.5
Return Rating: 93.9

Recent Matches

Daniil Medvedev

Jesper de Jong

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Daniil Medvedev
vs
0
Jesper de Jong
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 128 at the 2026 Australian Open, Daniil Medvedev faces Jesper de Jong on hard courts in Australia. Medvedev, ranked 13th, is favored to win with a probability of 74.47%, while de Jong holds a 25.53% chance. The expected total number of games in this match is approximately 37.71.

Match Analysis

Daniil Medvedev enters the match with a solid Elo rating of 2710, reflecting his consistent performance on the ATP tour. His form index of 68.21 demonstrates good current form, and he remains unfatigued as he hasn’t accumulated any minutes on court in this tournament. Medvedev's surface strength index of 13.66 and a mean serve index of 67.64 suggest he is well-suited to the hard surface. Conversely, Jesper de Jong, ranked 71st, has a significantly lower Elo rating of 737.92 and a form index of just 13.82, indicating struggles in his recent matches. While his surface strength index of 20.60 indicates some capability on hard courts, his exceptionally high mean serve index of 97.52 might give him a slight advantage in serving, although his return index of 93.89 is much higher than Medvedev's 53.25, showcasing a stark difference in returning ability. In their recent performances, Medvedev has shown strong form, winning all of his last three matches, including a dominant performance against Brandon Nakashima. His victories have been decisive, indicating confidence and momentum. On the other hand, de Jong has faced challenges, losing all three of his recent matches, which could impact his mental state heading into this encounter.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 37.7 Most likely outcome: 37 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Daniil Medvedev versus Jesper de Jong. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Daniil Medvedev versus Jesper de Jong. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Daniil Medvedev - Jesper de Jong) +3.2 Most likely spread: +3 (Daniil Medvedev wins 3 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Daniil Medvedev versus Jesper de Jong. Positive values indicate Daniil Medvedev winning more games, negative values indicate Jesper de Jong winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Daniil Medvedev versus Jesper de Jong. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The match is expected to feature around 23.13 predicted aces and approximately 4.16 expected double faults. Given that the hard court surface provides a balanced environment for serving, the likelihood of a moderate number of aces aligns with Medvedev's competitive serve. Although de Jong's high serve index suggests he could contribute to the expected aces, Medvedev’s overall serving performance is likely to dominate the ace count.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 23.1 Most likely: 23 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 4.2 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Daniil Medvedev versus Jesper de Jong. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Daniil Medvedev versus Jesper de Jong. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Daniil Medvedev versus Jesper de Jong. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Daniil Medvedev versus Jesper de Jong. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

Final Prediction

Daniil Medvedev's superior form, higher ranking, and recent performances provide him with a distinct edge over Jesper de Jong. The key factor to watch will be the effectiveness of Medvedev's return game against de Jong's strong serve, as this could dictate the flow of the match.

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