Daniil Medvedev vs Sebastian Gorzny: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model’s edge for Medvedev is driven mainly by overall strength (+16.7 percentage points), recent record by level (+12.1 p.p.), and serve and return game (+10.4 p.p.). Medvedev is world number 8 with an Elo of 1774.34 and a form index of 32.48. His surface strength index on hard courts is 44.37 and his mean serve index is very high at 96.82. Gorzny is ranked 1000, with an Elo of 1539.89 and a higher form index at 44.32. His surface strength index is much lower at 12.68 while his mean serve index sits at 93.57. Both players show identical tournament fatigue at 174 minutes on court. The serve and return numbers are comparable between them, so the advantage for Medvedev comes from quality and consistency rather than a raw serving gap. Recent results underline the model signal. Medvedev arrives off a straight sets win at this event over Hugo Gaston, but his two prior hard court outings were losses in early rounds at lead-up events. Gorzny won his opening US Open match in five sets, but his previous two matches were 1-2 losses in preparatory tournaments. Overall Medvedev’s record against higher level opposition and his higher Elo supply the bulk of the projected advantage.