Denis Shapovalov vs Dalibor Svrcina: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model’s edge for Shapovalov comes mainly from recent form (+3.2 percentage points), followed by overall strength (+2.4) and recent record by level (+2.2). On paper Shapovalov brings the higher tour ranking (68 vs 116) and a strong serve/return profile (mean serve index 96.25, mean return index 90.50). Elo ratings are essentially level (1560.58 for Shapovalov vs 1561.49 for Svrcina), so ranking and situational form are doing much of the work for Denis. Shapovalov also carries 120 minutes of court time in this event, whereas Svrcina shows zero minutes of fatigue recorded for the tournament. Surface and age pull slightly toward Svrcina in the model (surface fit +1.7, age +1.6). The surface strength indices show Shapovalov at 29.04 versus Svrcina 18.65, while Svrcina posts a higher form index (32.31 vs Shapovalov’s 18.38). The difference between their mean serve and mean return indexes is small (under 5 points), so no single player has a dominant serving or returning stat by that threshold. Recent match trends: Shapovalov arrives having won his last match in Los Cabos (a three-setter versus Rinky Hijikata) after two losses on grass at Wimbledon; Svrcina’s last three recorded matches are losses (to Dimitrov, Learner Tien and Thomas Faurel), with only occasional set gains.