Denis Shapovalov vs Rafael Jodar: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Shapovalov comes in as the higher-ranked player (No. 25) with a strong Elo (1459.48) and zero tournament fatigue, while Jodar is ranked 124 with a much lower Elo (465.05) but a higher recent form index. Surface strength indices are low for both—Shapovalov 10.96, Jodar 4.38—suggesting neither is particularly dominant on hard courts in the underlying metric. Notably, Jodar’s mean serve index (94.44) outstrips Shapovalov’s (71.94) by more than 5 points, and his mean return index (90.30) also exceeds Shapovalov’s (56.46) by a wide margin; these differences point to Jodar’s pronounced serving and returning performance metrics in the dataset. Recent results show mixed patterns: Shapovalov has two losses and one straight-sets win in his last three (including a heavy loss to Marin Cilic and a strong win over Yunchaokete Bu), while Jodar has built momentum with two straight-sets wins in Dallas after an earlier straight-sets loss at the Australian Open. Fatigue could be a factor—Jodar carries 184 minutes on court in this event versus Shapovalov’s zero—so match conditioning should be watched alongside raw performance metrics.