Australian Open Australia Hard Grand Slam Round of 128

Denis Shapovalov vs Yunchaokete Bu: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Denis Shapovalov

Rank: #23
63%
VS

Yunchaokete Bu

Rank: #120
37%
Expected Total Games: 38.5
Predicted Winner: Denis Shapovalov

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Ranking Trends

Denis Shapovalov

  • Current #23 2026-01-05
  • 3 mo ago #23 2025-10-20
  • 6 mo ago #28 2025-07-21
  • 9 mo ago #30 2025-04-21
  • 12 mo ago #56 2025-01-13

Yunchaokete Bu

  • Current #120 2026-01-05
  • 3 mo ago #115 2025-10-20
  • 6 mo ago #75 2025-07-21
  • 9 mo ago #72 2025-04-21
  • 12 mo ago #67 2025-01-13

Player Metrics

Denis Shapovalov

Form Index: 24.4
ELO Rating: 1585.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1594.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 11.3
Clay: 9.5
Grass: 12.0
Serve Rating: 65.9
Return Rating: 62.2

Yunchaokete Bu

Form Index: 15.7
ELO Rating: 476.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1575.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 13.9
Clay: 10.6
Grass: 9.6
Serve Rating: 98.3
Return Rating: 93.9

Recent Matches

Denis Shapovalov
❌ ❌ ❌ ✅ ✅

Yunchaokete Bu
❌ ❌ ✅ ❌ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Denis Shapovalov
vs
0
Yunchaokete Bu
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 128 at the Australian Open 2026, Denis Shapovalov is set to face Yunchaokete Bu on hard courts in Australia. Shapovalov, ranked 23rd, is the favorite with a 63.07% probability of winning, while Bu holds a 36.93% chance. The match is expected to be competitive, with a predicted total of 38.5 games played.

Match Analysis

Denis Shapovalov's current form index of 24.41 and Elo rating of 1585 indicate a solid performance level, though he has struggled recently, losing his last three matches. His surface strength index of 11.31 and fatigue level of 0.0 suggest he is ready to compete. Conversely, Yunchaokete Bu, ranked 120th, has a lower form index of 15.67 and an Elo rating of 476, which reflects a less favorable recent performance. Notably, Bu has a high mean serve index of 98.26 compared to Shapovalov’s 65.94, indicating he possesses a strong serve. However, Shapovalov's return index of 62.21 is also noteworthy, suggesting he can effectively challenge Bu’s powerful serves. In their last three matches, both players have faced difficulties; Shapovalov has lost all three, while Bu has won only one out of his last three encounters. Shapovalov’s recent losses have come against tougher opponents, while Bu has also faced setbacks, which may impact their confidence heading into this match.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 38.5 Most likely outcome: 38 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Denis Shapovalov - Yunchaokete Bu) +1.2 Most likely spread: +1 (Denis Shapovalov wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The expected total aces for this match is 21.19, with anticipated double faults predicted at 5.51. Given the hard court surface, which offers a balanced environment for both serving and returning, these figures are plausible. Shapovalov's lower mean serve index compared to Bu's indicates that while he may not dominate in ace counts, he could still capitalize on opportunities. The expected double faults hint at potential inconsistencies, particularly from both players under pressure.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 21.2 Most likely: 21 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.5 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Denis Shapovalov is favored to win due to his higher ranking, experience, and return capabilities, despite recent losses. A key factor to monitor will be Shapovalov's ability to handle Bu's strong serve and convert break points, which could be crucial in securing the match.

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