Stockholm Sweden Hard Atp 250 Round of 16

Jacob Fearnley vs Elias Ymer Prediction

Jacob Fearnley

Rank: #80
61%
VS

Elias Ymer

Rank: #234
39%
Expected Total Games: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Jacob Fearnley

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Ranking Trends

Jacob Fearnley

  • Current #80 2025-09-29
  • 3 mo ago #57 2025-07-14
  • 6 mo ago #74 2025-04-14
  • 9 mo ago #92 2025-01-13
  • 12 mo ago #99 2024-10-14

Elias Ymer

  • Current #234 2025-09-29
  • 3 mo ago #264 2025-07-14
  • 6 mo ago #248 2025-04-14
  • 9 mo ago #327 2025-01-13
  • 12 mo ago #252 2024-10-14

Player Metrics

Jacob Fearnley

Form Index: 22.8
ELO Rating: 918.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1534.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 164.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.8
Clay: 7.8
Grass: 5.9
Serve Rating: 96.0
Return Rating: 88.7

Elias Ymer

Form Index: 38.2
ELO Rating: 234.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1542.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 90.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 1.3
Clay: 2.1
Grass: 2.9
Serve Rating: 95.9
Return Rating: 88.4

Recent Matches

Jacob Fearnley
✅ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌

Elias Ymer
✅ ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Mikael Ymer (2-0) hard Stockholm 90 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Patrick Maloney (0-2) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Luciano Darderi (0-2) clay Bastad 71 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Tristan Boyer (2-1) clay Bastad 134 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Brandon Holt (0-2) grass Mallorca 96 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Jacob Fearnley
vs
0
Elias Ymer
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The match between Jacob Fearnley and Elias Ymer is set to take place in the Round of 16 at the Stockholm tournament, played on hard courts. With a predicted winner in Jacob Fearnley, he holds a probability of winning at 60.72%, compared to Ymer's 39.28%. The anticipated total number of games played in this match is 23.0.

Match Analysis

Jacob Fearnley currently ranks 80th, showcasing a strong form index of 22.82 and an Elo rating of 918.51. His surface strength index of 6.80 indicates a solid performance on hard courts. However, his cumulative fatigue of 164 minutes from this tournament could impact his stamina. In contrast, Elias Ymer, ranked 234th, has a form index of 38.23 and an Elo rating of 234.82, with a significantly lower surface strength index of 1.34. Ymer's fatigue level is lower at 90 minutes, potentially giving him an advantage in endurance. When examining their recent performances, Fearnley has had a mixed bag, winning his last match against Tallon Griekspoor but struggling against higher-ranked opponents like Alexander Zverev and Hamad Medjedovic. Ymer, on the other hand, has shown resilience, winning his last encounter against Mikael Ymer, despite earlier losses at the US Open and in Bastad. The difference in their mean serve indices is minimal, with Fearnley at 95.99 and Ymer at 95.89, while their return indices reflect a closer margin as well, suggesting a balanced serving capability.

Final Prediction

Fearnley's edge in rank, recent match experience, and overall performance metrics suggest he is the more likely victor in this matchup. A crucial factor to observe will be how fatigue influences both players, particularly Fearnley's higher cumulative fatigue, which could affect his consistency throughout the match.

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