Australian Open Australia Hard Grand Slam Round of 64

Hubert Hurkacz vs Ethan Quinn: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Hubert Hurkacz

Rank: #53
59%
VS

Ethan Quinn

Rank: #78
41%
Expected Total Games: 39.2
Predicted Winner: Hubert Hurkacz

Ranking Trends

Hubert Hurkacz

  • Current Rank: #53 (2026-01-12)
  • 3 Months Ago: #76 (2025-10-20)
  • 6 Months Ago: #38 (2025-07-21)
  • 9 Months Ago: #28 (2025-04-21)
  • 12 Months Ago: #17 (2025-01-13)

Ethan Quinn

  • Current Rank: #78 (2026-01-12)
  • 3 Months Ago: #71 (2025-10-20)
  • 6 Months Ago: #86 (2025-07-21)
  • 9 Months Ago: #119 (2025-04-21)
  • 12 Months Ago: #166 (2025-01-13)

Player Metrics

Hubert Hurkacz

Form Index: 66.3
ELO Rating: 809.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1757.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 174.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 7.5
Clay: 7.7
Grass: 5.3
Serve Rating: 79.1
Return Rating: 23.7

Ethan Quinn

Form Index: 57.9
ELO Rating: 846.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1536.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 174.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 7.8
Clay: 7.6
Grass: 6.1
Serve Rating: 96.4
Return Rating: 92.0

Recent Matches

Hubert Hurkacz
✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Zizou Bergs (3-1) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Roberto Bautista Agut (2-0) grass S Hertogenbosch 98 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Joao Fonseca (0-3) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Novak Djokovic (1-2) clay Geneva 185 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Sebastian Ofner (2-0) clay Geneva 60 min

Ethan Quinn
✅ ❌ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Tallon Griekspoor (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Marton Fucsovics (0-2) hard Adelaide 95 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Raphael Collignon (0-2) hard Brisbane 78 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Benjamin Bonzi (2-1) hard Brisbane 127 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Botic van de Zandschulp (2-0) hard Paris 94 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Hubert Hurkacz
vs
0
Ethan Quinn
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 64 at the Australian Open, Hubert Hurkacz faces Ethan Quinn on a hard court in Australia. The match is crucial for both players as they aim to progress further in this prestigious Grand Slam event. Hubert Hurkacz is predicted to win, with a 59.28% probability of victory compared to Ethan Quinn's 40.72%. The expected total number of games in the match is approximately 39.21.

Match Analysis

Hubert Hurkacz, currently ranked 53, has a form index of 66.32, suggesting he is in decent form, despite recent fluctuations. His Elo rating stands at 809.77, and he has a cumulative fatigue of 174 minutes from the tournament, which indicates he is maintaining his endurance levels. Hurkacz's surface strength index is 7.51, which aligns well with his performance on hard courts. His mean serve index of 79.13 is lower than Quinn's, indicating that the latter has a notable edge in serving capabilities. In contrast, Ethan Quinn holds a rank of 78 and a form index of 57.89, which reflects a less consistent performance recently. His Elo rating of 846.89 is higher than Hurkacz's, but he also has 174 minutes of fatigue from the current tournament. Both players have had mixed results in their last three matches, with Hurkacz winning two out of three, including a recent victory over Zizou Bergs with a scoreline of 3-1. Conversely, Quinn has shown resilience, winning his last match against Tallon Griekspoor convincingly but struggling in previous matches, notably losing to Marton Fucsovics and Raphael Collignon. The trends suggest Hurkacz has some momentum, but Quinn's recent win may boost his confidence.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 39.2 Most likely outcome: 39 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The expected aces prediction for this match is approximately 21.61, which indicates a considerable serving display, especially given the hard court surface that typically balances the advantage between powerful servers and strong returners. The expected double faults prediction stands at 4.86, suggesting that players will maintain a relatively high level of service reliability, although minor errors may occur. Given Hurkacz's mean serve index, which is lower than Quinn's, this could potentially influence the ace count and double faults during the match.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 21.6 Most likely: 21 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.9 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Hubert Hurkacz is favored to win due to his better recent form and match experience, despite Quinn's strong serving capabilities. The key factor to watch will be how well Hurkacz can handle Quinn's serve and whether he can capitalize on any double faults.

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