Mallorca Spain Grass Atp 250 Quarterfinals

Ethan Quinn vs Vit Kopriva: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Ethan Quinn

Rank: #66
50%
VS

Vit Kopriva

Rank: #64
50%
Expected Total Games: 25.3
Predicted Winner: Ethan Quinn

Why the Model Favors Ethan Quinn

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Age +3.6 Ethan Quinn
Head-to-head +3.1 Vit Kopriva
Recent form +2.8 Ethan Quinn
Serve & return game +2.7 Ethan Quinn
Recent record by level +2.4 Vit Kopriva

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 50% for Ethan Quinn. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network — not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Ethan Quinn

  • Current #66 2026-06-15
  • 3 mo ago #56 2026-03-16
  • 6 mo ago #70 2025-12-22
  • 9 mo ago #81 2025-09-22
  • 12 mo ago #95 2025-06-23

Vit Kopriva

  • Current #64 2026-06-15
  • 3 mo ago #60 2026-03-16
  • 6 mo ago #101 2025-12-22
  • 9 mo ago #92 2025-09-22
  • 12 mo ago #82 2025-06-23

Player Metrics

Ethan Quinn

Form Index: 35.8
ELO Rating: 1566.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1615.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 207.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 25.7
Clay: 15.9
Grass: 15.7
Serve Rating: 96.8
Return Rating: 92.3

Vit Kopriva

Form Index: 45.8
ELO Rating: 1682.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1718.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 156.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 15.7
Clay: 22.0
Grass: 8.7
Serve Rating: 94.6
Return Rating: 88.9

Recent Matches

Ethan Quinn
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

Vit Kopriva
✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

2
Ethan Quinn
vs
0
Vit Kopriva
Hard
1 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
1 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Quarterfinals in Mallorca on grass — an intimate, fast-court ATP 250 setting — brings Ethan Quinn against Vit Kopriva in what the model deems a near coin-flip. The system narrowly favors Ethan Quinn (50.34%) over Vit Kopriva (49.66%) with a predicted total of about 25.3 games in the match.

Match Analysis

The model’s edge for Quinn comes chiefly from age (a 3.6-point lift) and his recent form and serve/return profile; Kopriva’s small advantage in head-to-head and recent record by level trim that margin. On paper Kopriva sits two places higher in the rankings (64 vs 66) and carries a higher Elo (1682.6 to Quinn’s 1566.1). Kopriva also shows the stronger form index (45.76 vs 35.75) and is less fatigued this week (156 minutes on court versus Quinn’s 207), which helps explain the model’s H2H and recent-record tilt toward him. Quinn counters with higher surface strength (15.68 vs 8.66) and slightly stronger mean serve (96.79) and return (92.27) indices compared with Kopriva’s serve 94.60 and return 88.90, which feed the model’s serve & return advantage for Quinn. Recent results are instructive: Quinn arrives with two Mallorca wins (including a three-setter) and a prior loss to Ben Shelton on grass at Halle, while Kopriva has three straight wins in Mallorca (all in straight sets) after a loss to Zverev at Halle. Those recent-match patterns explain the model’s split lifts for recent form (toward Quinn) and recent record by level (toward Kopriva).

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 25.3 Most likely outcome: 25 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Ethan Quinn - Vit Kopriva) +0.7 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction sits at roughly 13.2 for the match and the predicted aces number reflects grass’s favouring of big, flat serving — expect shorter rallies and more free points on serve. The double faults prediction is about 6.8 total; given both players have high serve indices, a moderate share of those are likely under pressure on serve games. The expected double faults and predicted aces balance suggests many service holds and a tight scoreline.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 13.2 Most likely: 13 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.8 Most likely: 6 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

40.4% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Ethan Quinn's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (29.6%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Quinn’s marginal edge comes primarily from the model’s age factor and his combined serve/return metrics on grass. Watch fatigue and Kopriva’s clean straight-set runs this week — those will be decisive in tight service games.

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