Federico Coria vs Matteo Berrettini: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Coria enters ranked 312 with a low Elo (200) and a modest form index (29.5); his surface strength index on clay is 1.77 and cumulative fatigue is zero. Berrettini is ranked 58 with a considerably higher Elo (945) and better form (48.6); his surface strength index is 9.50 and he also shows no tournament fatigue. There is a very large gap in serving: Berrettini’s mean serve index (99.60) exceeds Coria’s (59.13) by over 40 points, which will shape service hold dynamics. On returns, Coria posts a perfect 100.0 return index versus Berrettini’s 88.97, a difference greater than 5 points that suggests Coria can still trouble servers despite the gulf in other areas. Looking at recent matches, Coria has one win and two losses in his last three, including a straight-sets loss in Umag and an earlier win at Roland Garros qualifying level; his recent results show inconsistency. Berrettini comes off two straight wins in Metz before a loss in his most recent match there, producing two convincing victories followed by a tougher three-set defeat. The contrast in rankings, Elo and serve potency explains the heavy pre-match tilt toward Berrettini.