Us Open NY, U.S.A. Hard Grand Slam Quarterfinals

Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alex de Minaur Prediction

Felix Auger-Aliassime

Rank: #27
40%
VS

Alex de Minaur

Rank: #8
60%
Predicted Games Played: 36.0
Predicted Winner: Alex de Minaur

Ranking Trends

Felix Auger-Aliassime

  • Current Rank: #27 (2025-08-18)
  • 3 Months Ago: #27 (2025-05-26)
  • 6 Months Ago: #21 (2025-02-24)
  • 9 Months Ago: #29 (2024-11-25)
  • 12 Months Ago: #19 (2024-08-26)

Alex de Minaur

  • Current Rank: #8 (2025-08-18)
  • 3 Months Ago: #9 (2025-05-26)
  • 6 Months Ago: #8 (2025-02-24)
  • 9 Months Ago: #9 (2024-11-25)
  • 12 Months Ago: #10 (2024-08-26)

Player Metrics

Felix Auger-Aliassime

Form Index: 75.3
ELO Rating: 1464.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1681.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 348.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 13.2
Clay: 13.0
Grass: 12.0
Serve Rating: 97.4
Return Rating: 85.7

Alex de Minaur

Form Index: 71.3
ELO Rating: 2589.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1792.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 348.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 20.4
Clay: 27.1
Grass: 28.5
Serve Rating: 94.3
Return Rating: 88.1

Recent Matches

Felix Auger-Aliassime
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Alexander Zverev (3-1) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Roman Safiullin (3-0) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Jannik Sinner (0-1) hard Cincinnati 71 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Benjamin Bonzi (2-0) hard Cincinnati 74 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Arthur Rinderknech (2-0) hard Cincinnati 121 min

Alex de Minaur
✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Daniel Altmaier (3-1) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Shintaro Mochizuki (3-0) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Reilly Opelka (0-2) hard Cincinnati 99 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Ben Shelton (0-2) hard Toronto 91 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Frances Tiafoe (2-1) hard Toronto 144 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Felix Auger-Aliassime
vs
1
Alex de Minaur
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 1
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the quarterfinals of the US Open 2025, taking place on hard courts in New York, Alex de Minaur is favored to win against Felix Auger-Aliassime. The prediction assigns a 59.98% probability of victory to De Minaur, while Auger-Aliassime is given a 40.02% chance. The match is expected to feature a total of approximately 36 games.

Match Analysis

Alex de Minaur currently holds a rank of 8 and boasts a solid Elo rating of 2589.79, reflecting his strong performance this season. His form index of 71.35 indicates consistent play, while his surface strength index of 20.43 suggests he is well-suited to hard court conditions. Both players share a cumulative fatigue of 348 minutes, indicating they have faced similar physical demands. De Minaur's mean serve index of 94.30 is slightly weaker than Auger-Aliassime's 97.37, though the difference is less than 5 points. However, De Minaur excels on returns with a mean return index of 88.06, compared to Auger-Aliassime's 85.69. Felix Auger-Aliassime, ranked 27, has recently shown improvement, winning his last two matches at the US Open against Alexander Zverev and Roman Safiullin. His performances against Zverev were particularly impressive, where he secured a 3-1 sets victory. However, he did suffer a loss to Jannik Sinner prior to the tournament, indicating some inconsistency in form. In contrast, De Minaur has demonstrated reliability, winning his last three matches, including two straight-sets victories in the US Open.

Final Prediction

Alex de Minaur's higher rank, superior Elo rating, and better return game provide him with a significant edge in this matchup. The key factor to watch will be the effectiveness of De Minaur's return game against Auger-Aliassime's serve, as it could dictate the flow and outcome of the match.