Us Open NY, U.S.A. Hard Grand Slam Quarterfinals

Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alex de Minaur Prediction

Felix Auger-Aliassime

Rank: #27
40%
VS

Alex de Minaur

Rank: #8
60%
Expected Total Games: 36.0
Predicted Winner: Alex de Minaur

Also available in Claude. Query these predictions in plain language — our native connector lets Claude call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Player Metrics

Felix Auger-Aliassime

Form Index: 75.3
ELO Rating: 1464.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1681.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 348.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 13.2
Clay: 13.0
Grass: 12.0
Serve Rating: 97.4
Return Rating: 85.7

Alex de Minaur

Form Index: 71.3
ELO Rating: 2589.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1792.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 348.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 20.4
Clay: 27.1
Grass: 28.5
Serve Rating: 94.3
Return Rating: 88.1

Recent Matches

Felix Auger-Aliassime

Alex de Minaur

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Felix Auger-Aliassime
vs
1
Alex de Minaur
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 1
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the quarterfinals of the US Open 2025, taking place on hard courts in New York, Alex de Minaur is favored to win against Felix Auger-Aliassime. The prediction assigns a 59.98% probability of victory to De Minaur, while Auger-Aliassime is given a 40.02% chance. The match is expected to feature a total of approximately 36 games.

Match Analysis

Alex de Minaur currently holds a rank of 8 and boasts a solid Elo rating of 2589.79, reflecting his strong performance this season. His form index of 71.35 indicates consistent play, while his surface strength index of 20.43 suggests he is well-suited to hard court conditions. Both players share a cumulative fatigue of 348 minutes, indicating they have faced similar physical demands. De Minaur's mean serve index of 94.30 is slightly weaker than Auger-Aliassime's 97.37, though the difference is less than 5 points. However, De Minaur excels on returns with a mean return index of 88.06, compared to Auger-Aliassime's 85.69. Felix Auger-Aliassime, ranked 27, has recently shown improvement, winning his last two matches at the US Open against Alexander Zverev and Roman Safiullin. His performances against Zverev were particularly impressive, where he secured a 3-1 sets victory. However, he did suffer a loss to Jannik Sinner prior to the tournament, indicating some inconsistency in form. In contrast, De Minaur has demonstrated reliability, winning his last three matches, including two straight-sets victories in the US Open.

Final Prediction

Alex de Minaur's higher rank, superior Elo rating, and better return game provide him with a significant edge in this matchup. The key factor to watch will be the effectiveness of De Minaur's return game against Auger-Aliassime's serve, as it could dictate the flow and outcome of the match.

Get Daily Tennis Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven tennis predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel