Roland Garros France Clay Grand Slam Round of 32

Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Brandon Nakashima: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Felix Auger-Aliassime

Rank: #5
49%
VS

Brandon Nakashima

Rank: #33
51%
Expected Total Games: 42.6
Predicted Winner: Brandon Nakashima

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Ranking Trends

Felix Auger-Aliassime

  • Current #5 2026-05-18
  • 3 mo ago #8 2026-02-23
  • 6 mo ago #5 2025-11-24
  • 9 mo ago #27 2025-08-25
  • 12 mo ago #27 2025-05-26

Brandon Nakashima

  • Current #33 2026-05-18
  • 3 mo ago #29 2026-02-23
  • 6 mo ago #33 2025-11-24
  • 9 mo ago #31 2025-08-25
  • 12 mo ago #32 2025-05-26

Player Metrics

Felix Auger-Aliassime

Form Index: 53.3
ELO Rating: 1796.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1892.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 348.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 39.6
Clay: 31.0
Grass: 30.4
Serve Rating: 96.7
Return Rating: 89.5

Brandon Nakashima

Form Index: 56.6
ELO Rating: 1677.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1741.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 348.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 25.0
Clay: 20.2
Grass: 20.5
Serve Rating: 95.9
Return Rating: 83.8

Recent Matches

Felix Auger-Aliassime
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Roman Andres Burruchaga (3-1) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Daniel Altmaier (3-2) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Aleksandar Kovacevic (1-2) clay Hamburg 142 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Vit Kopriva (2-0) clay Hamburg 85 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Mariano Navone (0-2) clay Rome 173 min

Brandon Nakashima
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Luca Van Assche (3-2) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Roberto Bautista Agut (3-0) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Nikoloz Basilashvili (0-2) clay Rome 100 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Roberto Bautista Agut (2-0) clay Rome 82 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Alexander Blockx (1-2) clay Madrid 111 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Felix Auger-Aliassime
vs
0
Brandon Nakashima
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Roland-Garros, Paris — Round of 32 on clay at a Grand Slam stage pits No. 5 Felix Auger-Aliassime against No. 33 Brandon Nakashima in what projects to be a tight, physically demanding encounter. The model slightly favors Nakashima, 51.0% to Auger-Aliassime’s 49.0%, with an expected 42.6 total games in the match.

Match Analysis

Auger-Aliassime enters with the higher ranking (5), a superior Elo (1796.2) and a stronger surface index for clay (30.96 vs 20.18), but Nakashima carries a marginally better form index (56.61 to 53.29). Both have identical cumulative fatigue at this event (348 minutes), so match fitness from minutes on court is effectively even. Their mean serve indices are close (Felix 96.72; Nakashima 95.86) so there is no clear serving gulf, but Auger-Aliassime’s mean return index is meaningfully higher (89.52 vs 83.83), a difference worth noting on a surface that rewards consistent returning. Recent results show similar momentum: Auger-Aliassime has two straight wins at Roland-Garros (3-1 and a 3-2), following a loss on clay in Hamburg; his recent matches have been long affairs. Nakashima likewise reached this round with two wins at Roland-Garros — including a straight-sets victory — after a loss in Rome. Both players have logged extended court time in their last two matches (each 174 minutes), suggesting endurance will be a shared factor late in rallies and decisive sets.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 42.6 Most likely outcome: 42 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Felix Auger-Aliassime - Brandon Nakashima) +0.2 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this match sits at about 19.68 total, while the predicted double faults are 6.7. Clay typically reduces ace volume because slower pace and higher bounce give returners more time, so the expected aces figure is moderate; expected double faults can creep up as longer matches and fatigue set in. Neither player has a markedly superior serve rating, so predicted aces should be distributed rather than heavily favoring one player.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 19.7 Most likely: 19 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.7 Most likely: 6 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

60.8% Predicted: Tiebreak likely

Exact Score Distribution BO5

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Felix Auger-Aliassime's perspective)

0-3 Most likely set score (20.6%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Nakashima’s slight edge in the model comes from recent form and match outcomes, narrowly outweighing Auger-Aliassime’s higher ranking and superior clay index. Watch the returning battle — Auger-Aliassime’s stronger return index is the key factor that could swing momentum and decide the tight finish.

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