Rotterdam Netherlands Hard Atp 500 Quarterfinals

Tallon Griekspoor vs Felix Auger-Aliassime: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Tallon Griekspoor

Rank: #29
34%
VS

Felix Auger-Aliassime

Rank: #8
66%
Expected Total Games: 24.9
Predicted Winner: Felix Auger-Aliassime

Ranking Trends

Tallon Griekspoor

  • Current Rank: #29 (2026-02-02)
  • 3 Months Ago: #25 (2025-11-10)
  • 6 Months Ago: #32 (2025-08-04)
  • 9 Months Ago: #35 (2025-05-05)
  • 12 Months Ago: #42 (2025-02-10)

Felix Auger-Aliassime

  • Current Rank: #8 (2026-02-02)
  • 3 Months Ago: #8 (2025-11-10)
  • 6 Months Ago: #28 (2025-08-04)
  • 9 Months Ago: #27 (2025-05-05)
  • 12 Months Ago: #22 (2025-02-10)

Player Metrics

Tallon Griekspoor

Form Index: 51.6
ELO Rating: 1321.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1628.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 193.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 7.6
Clay: 11.4
Grass: 12.6
Serve Rating: 90.1
Return Rating: 45.6

Felix Auger-Aliassime

Form Index: 70.3
ELO Rating: 4062.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1683.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 182.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 28.8
Clay: 31.9
Grass: 32.8
Serve Rating: 98.5
Return Rating: 87.6

Recent Matches

Tallon Griekspoor
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Quentin Halys (2-0) hard Rotterdam 121 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard (2-0) hard Rotterdam 72 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Titouan Droguet (0-2) hard Montpellier 106 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Pablo Carreno Busta (2-0) hard Montpellier 66 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Ethan Quinn (0-3) hard Australian Open 174 min

Felix Auger-Aliassime
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Hamad Medjedovic (2-0) hard Rotterdam 90 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Alexei Popyrin (2-0) hard Rotterdam 92 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Adrian Mannarino (2-0) hard Montpellier 95 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Titouan Droguet (2-1) hard Montpellier 147 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Arthur Fils (2-0) hard Montpellier 68 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Tallon Griekspoor
vs
0
Felix Auger-Aliassime
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
1 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Quarterfinal action in Rotterdam on indoor hard courts sets up Tallon Griekspoor vs Felix Auger-Aliassime in an ATP 500 event. The model favors Felix Auger-Aliassime to advance (65.58%) over Tallon Griekspoor (34.42%), with an expected total of about 24.9 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Auger-Aliassime arrives as the higher-ranked player (No. 8) with a stronger form index (70.35) and a markedly higher Elo (4062.00) compared with Griekspoor (rank 29, form 51.60, Elo 1321.25). Fatigue levels are comparable from this tournament — Griekspoor 193 minutes vs Auger-Aliassime 182 minutes — so recent court time is unlikely to be a decisive disparity. On hard courts, Auger-Aliassime also shows a clear edge in surface strength (28.84 vs Griekspoor’s 7.56). Serving and returning profiles accentuate the gap: Auger-Aliassime’s mean serve index (98.46) is about 8.4 points higher than Griekspoor’s (90.10), and his mean return index (87.57) dwarfs Griekspoor’s (45.58) — both differences exceed 5 points and will matter on this medium-paced hard surface. Griekspoor’s serve remains a strength, but Auger-Aliassime’s combination of elite serving and top-tier returning suggests he can pressure Griekspoor’s service games while holding his own. Form-wise, Griekspoor has two wins and one loss in his last three matches, including straight-set wins in Rotterdam against Halys and Mpetshi Perricard. Auger-Aliassime is on a three-match winning streak, all straight sets in the last two tournaments, offering a cleaner recent run into the quarterfinal.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.9 Most likely outcome: 24 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction is modest for a hard-court contest: predicted aces for the match are about 10.6, with expected double faults around 4.47. Hard courts produce a balanced number of aces compared with grass or clay; because Auger-Aliassime has a significantly higher serve rating, he is likely to contribute a larger share of the predicted aces.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.6 Most likely: 10 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.5 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Auger-Aliassime’s superior form, Elo and return capability give him the edge in this matchup. A key factor to watch is Auger-Aliassime’s ability to convert return pressure into early breaks—if he succeeds, the match should stay on the shorter side of the games projection.

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