Acapulco Mexico Hard Atp 500 Round of 16

Dalibor Svrcina vs Flavio Cobolli: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Dalibor Svrcina

Rank: #123
25%
VS

Flavio Cobolli

Rank: #20
75%
Expected Total Games: 22.5
Predicted Winner: Flavio Cobolli

Player Metrics

Dalibor Svrcina

Form Index: 38.1
ELO Rating: 654.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1524.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 92.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 3.5
Clay: 4.1
Grass: 5.1
Serve Rating: 50.8
Return Rating: 79.6

Flavio Cobolli

Form Index: 50.1
ELO Rating: 1549.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1643.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 118.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 9.1
Clay: 16.8
Grass: 16.7
Serve Rating: 96.8
Return Rating: 90.1

Recent Matches

Dalibor Svrcina

  • Last Match: vs James Duckworth (2-0) hard Acapulco 92 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Rinky Hijikata (0-2) hard Delray Beach 97 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Nicolas Mejia (2-1) hard Delray Beach 126 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Jaume Munar (2-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Hamad Medjedovic (0-2) hard Auckland 70 min

Flavio Cobolli

  • Last Match: vs Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez (2-0) hard Acapulco 118 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Sebastian Korda (0-2) hard Delray Beach 76 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Coleman Wong (2-1) hard Delray Beach 134 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Terence Atmane (2-0) hard Delray Beach 101 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Jack Pinnington Jones (0-2) hard Dallas 53 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Dalibor Svrcina
vs
0
Flavio Cobolli
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This round-of-16 clash in Acapulco, Mexico — a hard-court, 500-level tournament — pits No. 123 Dalibor Svrcina against No. 20 Flavio Cobolli. The model favors Cobolli to win (74.98%) over Svrcina (25.02%), with a projected total of about 22.5 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Cobolli arrives with a considerably higher ranking (20 vs 123), a stronger Elo (1,549.38 vs 654.81) and a higher form index (50.07 vs 38.13). He also carries more court time in the event (118 vs 92 minutes), which shows slightly greater fatigue for Cobolli but not enough in the data to offset his overall edge. Surface strength indexes are both low but favor Cobolli (9.10 vs 3.46). The mean serve index gap is large (96.78 vs 50.78), and the mean return index difference is also notable (90.12 vs 79.58); both differentials exceed 5 points and point to measurable strengths for Cobolli on both serve and return metrics. Svrcina’s recent results on hard courts show two wins (against James Duckworth and Nicolas Mejia) and a loss to Rinky Hijikata, with match lengths of 92, 126 and 97 minutes respectively. Cobolli’s last three include wins over Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez and Coleman Wong and a loss to Sebastian Korda, with notable match durations of 118, 134 and 76 minutes. Both players have mixed short-term form, but Cobolli’s higher baseline metrics and consistency in longer matches give him the statistical edge.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 22.5 Most likely outcome: 22 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this hard-court match is roughly 10.95 total, with an expected double faults count near 5.02. Hard courts typically produce a moderate number of aces compared with grass or clay, so the predicted aces align with surface tendencies. Given Cobolli’s substantially higher serve rating, the predicted aces are likely to be weighted toward him, while expected double faults remain modest for the match.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.9 Most likely: 10 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 5.0 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Final Prediction

Cobolli’s advantage in ranking, Elo, serve and return indices drives the prediction in his favor despite slightly greater minutes on court. The key factor to watch is how Cobolli’s powerful serve converts into free points and whether Svrcina’s comparatively strong return index can offset that pressure.

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