Miami FL, U.S.A. Hard Masters 1000 Round of 64

Frances Tiafoe vs Arthur Cazaux: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Frances Tiafoe

Rank: #20
54%
VS

Arthur Cazaux

Rank: #73
46%
Expected Total Games: 23.8
Predicted Winner: Frances Tiafoe

Ranking Trends

Frances Tiafoe

  • Current Rank: #20 (2026-03-16)
  • 3 Months Ago: #30 (2025-12-15)
  • 6 Months Ago: #29 (2025-09-15)
  • 9 Months Ago: #13 (2025-06-16)
  • 12 Months Ago: #17 (2025-03-17)

Arthur Cazaux

  • Current Rank: #73 (2026-03-16)
  • 3 Months Ago: #66 (2025-12-15)
  • 6 Months Ago: #84 (2025-09-15)
  • 9 Months Ago: #115 (2025-06-16)
  • 12 Months Ago: #118 (2025-03-17)

Player Metrics

Frances Tiafoe

Form Index: 52.7
ELO Rating: 1447.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1761.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 9.7
Clay: 11.0
Grass: 12.2
Serve Rating: 66.7
Return Rating: 54.6

Arthur Cazaux

Form Index: 48.8
ELO Rating: 831.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1572.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 95.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 7.0
Clay: 7.8
Grass: 7.5
Serve Rating: 98.1
Return Rating: 90.5

Recent Matches

Frances Tiafoe
❌ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Alexander Zverev (0-2) hard Indian Wells 89 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Flavio Cobolli (2-0) hard Indian Wells 67 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Jenson Brooksby (2-0) hard Indian Wells 83 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Flavio Cobolli (0-2) hard Acapulco 129 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Brandon Nakashima (2-1) hard Acapulco 171 min

Arthur Cazaux
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Tomas Barrios Vera (2-0) hard Miami 95 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Pablo Carreno Busta (0-1) hard Brisbane 46 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Martin Landaluce (2-0) hard Brisbane 83 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Cameron Norrie (1-2) hard Metz 166 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Adrian Mannarino (2-0) hard Metz 107 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Frances Tiafoe
vs
0
Arthur Cazaux
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At the Miami Masters in Florida, Round of 64 on hard courts, Frances Tiafoe is narrowly favoured to advance over Arthur Cazaux. The model projects Tiafoe to win with a 54.38% probability versus 45.62% for Cazaux, and expects about 23.8 total games in the match.

Match Analysis

Tiafoe arrives with the higher ranking (20) and a considerably stronger Elo (1447.3) and form index (52.7) compared with Cazaux (rank 73, Elo 831.8, form 48.8). Tiafoe also shows zero cumulative fatigue in the tournament so far, whereas Cazaux carries 95 minutes on court, which may matter in tight exchanges. Both players have low surface-strength index numbers on hard court (Tiafoe 9.74, Cazaux 7.00), suggesting neither is especially dominant on this surface according to the provided metric. Serve and return profiles present an intriguing contrast: Cazaux posts a substantially higher mean serve index (98.08) than Tiafoe (66.68) — a gap far above 5 points — and his mean return index (90.48) is also markedly higher than Tiafoe’s (54.63). Those gaps indicate Cazaux can produce free points on serve and apply pressure on return, on paper. Recent form shows Tiafoe won two straight matches at Indian Wells before losing to Alexander Zverev in the fourth round; Cazaux has two wins and a loss across Brisbane and Miami, including a 2-0 opening win in Miami (95 minutes). The contrast is therefore one of higher-class consistency for Tiafoe versus Cazaux’s big-stroke upside tempered by fatigue.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.8 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction calls for roughly 12.97 total aces in the match, and the predicted aces are likely skewed by Cazaux’s far higher serve index. The double faults prediction sits at about 5.16 expected double faults for the match. On Miami’s medium-paced hard courts, these expected numbers fit the surface profile: enough pace for aces but not as many as on grass; likewise expected double faults are moderate. Cazaux’s superior serve rating should be a key driver of the match’s ace count.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 13.0 Most likely: 12 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.2 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Tiafoe’s higher ranking, Elo and fresher legs give him the edge in a close call. Watch Cazaux’s serve and return spikes — if fatigue blunts them, Tiafoe’s consistency and experience will likely decide the outcome.

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