Roland Garros France Clay Grand Slam Round of 32

Jaime Faria vs Frances Tiafoe: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Jaime Faria

Rank: #117
29%
VS

Frances Tiafoe

Rank: #21
71%
Expected Total Games: 40.0
Predicted Winner: Frances Tiafoe

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Ranking Trends

Jaime Faria

  • Current #117 2026-05-18
  • 3 mo ago #145 2026-02-23
  • 6 mo ago #152 2025-11-24
  • 9 mo ago #117 2025-08-25
  • 12 mo ago #115 2025-05-26

Frances Tiafoe

  • Current #21 2026-05-18
  • 3 mo ago #28 2026-02-23
  • 6 mo ago #30 2025-11-24
  • 9 mo ago #17 2025-08-25
  • 12 mo ago #16 2025-05-26

Player Metrics

Jaime Faria

Form Index: 83.1
ELO Rating: 1766.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1807.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 870.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 25.1
Clay: 27.0
Grass: 14.1
Serve Rating: 94.2
Return Rating: 91.7

Frances Tiafoe

Form Index: 60.8
ELO Rating: 1822.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1844.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 348.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 38.1
Clay: 30.2
Grass: 15.9
Serve Rating: 94.7
Return Rating: 86.6

Recent Matches

Jaime Faria
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Jan-Lennard Struff (3-0) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Denis Shapovalov (3-0) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Lukas Neumayer (2-0) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Colton Smith (2-1) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Grigor Dimitrov (2-1) clay Roland Garros 174 min

Frances Tiafoe
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Hubert Hurkacz (3-2) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Eliot Spizzirri (3-1) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli (0-2) clay Hamburg 113 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Diego Dedura (2-0) clay Hamburg 94 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Andrea Pellegrino (0-2) clay Rome 116 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Jaime Faria
vs
0
Frances Tiafoe
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Roland Garros, Round of 32 on clay — a Grand Slam setting where physical grind and patience matter as much as power. Frances Tiafoe is the clear favorite here: modelled probability places him at 71.44% to win against Jaime Faria (28.56%), with an expected match length of about 40 total games.

Match Analysis

On paper Tiafoe brings the higher standing — world rank 21 and an Elo of 1822 — against Faria’s rank 117 and Elo ~1767. Faria arrives in strong form (form index 83.12) after three straight wins at Roland Garros, but his tournament fatigue is pronounced (870 minutes on court) compared with Tiafoe’s much lighter 348 minutes. Both players show modest clay-specific records in the provided surface strength indices (Faria ~27, Tiafoe ~30), so neither has a pronounced clay advantage. Serve metrics are nearly identical (mean serve indices 94.22 vs 94.69), so expect holds and return battles to decide many games rather than pure serving domination. However Faria’s mean return index (≈91.7) is notably higher than Tiafoe’s (≈86.6) by just over five points, suggesting Faria has been stronger returning in the model’s measures — a factor that could generate break opportunities, particularly if Tiafoe’s serve shows any dip late in rallies. Recent form: Faria has swept his three Roland Garros matches (all wins), while Tiafoe has won his last two at Roland Garros but came off a loss on clay in Hamburg earlier.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 40.0 Most likely outcome: 40 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Jaime Faria - Frances Tiafoe) -1.9 Most likely spread: -2 (Frances Tiafoe wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction sits at roughly 18.7 for the match and the predicted aces should be tempered by the clay surface, which typically reduces service winners due to higher bounce and slower conditions. Expected double faults are about 7.79; clay’s longer rallies and the accumulated fatigue — especially for Faria — can increase the likelihood of unforced serve errors. With serve ratings nearly identical, neither player is expected to overwhelmingly jack up the predicted aces count.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 18.7 Most likely: 18 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 7.8 Most likely: 7 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

53.2% Predicted: Tiebreak likely

Exact Score Distribution BO5

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Jaime Faria's perspective)

0-3 Most likely set score (35.1%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Tiafoe’s higher rank, superior Elo and fresher legs give him the edge, despite Faria’s strong recent run at Roland Garros. Watch the returns and break-point conversion: Faria’s edge in the return index is the clearest single variable that could tilt the match if he can turn that into timely breaks.

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