Rio Brazil Clay Atp 500 Round of 32

Francisco Cerundolo vs Mariano Navone: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Francisco Cerundolo

Rank: #19
69%
VS

Mariano Navone

Rank: #73
31%
Expected Total Games: 21.1
Predicted Winner: Francisco Cerundolo

Ranking Trends

Francisco Cerundolo

  • Current Rank: #19 (2026-02-09)
  • 3 Months Ago: #21 (2025-11-17)
  • 6 Months Ago: #19 (2025-08-18)
  • 9 Months Ago: #18 (2025-05-19)
  • 12 Months Ago: #26 (2025-02-17)

Mariano Navone

  • Current Rank: #73 (2026-02-09)
  • 3 Months Ago: #72 (2025-11-17)
  • 6 Months Ago: #74 (2025-08-18)
  • 9 Months Ago: #98 (2025-05-19)
  • 12 Months Ago: #46 (2025-02-17)

Player Metrics

Francisco Cerundolo

Form Index: 64.1
ELO Rating: 2074.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1683.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 13.3
Clay: 13.5
Grass: 15.3
Serve Rating: 75.9
Return Rating: 85.1

Mariano Navone

Form Index: 20.8
ELO Rating: 711.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1602.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 5.9
Clay: 8.9
Grass: 7.1
Serve Rating: 97.1
Return Rating: 93.1

Recent Matches

Francisco Cerundolo
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Luciano Darderi (2-0) clay Buenos Aires 96 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry (2-0) clay Buenos Aires 111 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Vit Kopriva (2-0) clay Buenos Aires 97 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Hugo Dellien (0-1) clay Buenos Aires 84 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Alexander Zverev (0-3) hard Australian Open 174 min

Mariano Navone
❌ ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli (0-2) clay Buenos Aires 122 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Emilio Nava (2-0) clay Buenos Aires 63 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Hamad Medjedovic (1-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Alex Michelsen (1-2) hard Auckland 145 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Coleman Wong (0-2) hard Hong Kong 101 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Francisco Cerundolo
vs
0
Mariano Navone
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
1 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This Rio clay round of 32 match at the 2026 ATP 500 event pits No. 19 Francisco Cerundolo against No. 73 Mariano Navone on a slow, high-bounce surface. The model favors Cerundolo with a 69.11% win probability to Navone’s 30.89%, and projects a relatively short match of about 21.07 total games.

Match Analysis

Cerundolo arrives as the clear favorite by ranking (19 vs 73), Elo (2074.87 vs 711.33) and form index (64.13 vs 20.75). His surface strength index (13.48) is higher than Navone’s (8.92), and neither player carries tournament fatigue (both 0.0). There is a notable contrast in serving: Navone’s mean serve index (97.06) is substantially higher than Cerundolo’s (75.88), a gap greater than 5 points; at the same time Navone also has a stronger mean return index (93.14) versus Cerundolo’s 85.12, another difference above 5 points. Those disparities signal that Navone can threaten with a powerful serve and return, but other metrics favor Cerundolo. Recent form underscores the projection. Cerundolo has won his last three matches on clay at Buenos Aires in straight sets, including wins over Etcheverry and Darderi, showing consistent clay-court momentum and match toughness. Navone’s last three outings include a decisive loss to Camilo Ugo Carabelli and a comfortable win over Emilio Nava; his results are more mixed and include a long hard-court defeat at the Australian Open, suggesting less consistent recent performance on surface and at this level.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 21.1 Most likely outcome: 21 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this match is 21.47 total, with a predicted aces skewed by Navone’s much higher serve index. Clay’s slower speed typically reduces aces, so the raw ace potential from Navone may be tempered. The double faults prediction is 5.92 expected double faults; clay’s longer rallies and physical demands can increase double faults late in matches, which may be relevant if games extend.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 21.5 Most likely: 21 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.9 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Cerundolo’s higher ranking, Elo and recent straight-set form on clay give him the edge despite Navone’s superior serve metrics. Watch how Navone’s serve and return power translate on Rio clay — if it consistently produces free points, it will be the match’s decisive factor.

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