Madrid Spain Clay Masters 1000 Round of 64

Francisco Cerundolo vs Yannick Hanfmann: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Francisco Cerundolo

Rank: #20
76%
VS

Yannick Hanfmann

Rank: #60
24%
Expected Total Games: 22.9
Predicted Winner: Francisco Cerundolo

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Ranking Trends

Francisco Cerundolo

  • Current #20 2026-04-20
  • 3 mo ago #21 2026-01-19
  • 6 mo ago #21 2025-10-20
  • 9 mo ago #19 2025-07-21
  • 12 mo ago #21 2025-04-21

Yannick Hanfmann

  • Current #60 2026-04-20
  • 3 mo ago #102 2026-01-19
  • 6 mo ago #126 2025-10-20
  • 9 mo ago #141 2025-07-21
  • 12 mo ago #123 2025-04-21

Player Metrics

Francisco Cerundolo

Form Index: 50.3
ELO Rating: 1818.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1849.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 62.4
Clay: 44.0
Grass: 42.2
Serve Rating: 76.8
Return Rating: 84.5

Yannick Hanfmann

Form Index: 64.0
ELO Rating: 1687.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1761.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 143.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 55.7
Clay: 43.2
Grass: 41.7
Serve Rating: 98.0
Return Rating: 89.4

Recent Matches

Francisco Cerundolo
❌ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Alexander Zverev (1-2) clay Munich 135 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Botic van de Zandschulp (2-0) clay Munich 64 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Sumit Nagal (2-0) clay Munich 80 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Tomas Machac (0-2) clay Monte Carlo 108 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Stefanos Tsitsipas (2-0) clay Monte Carlo 105 min

Yannick Hanfmann
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Marcos Giron (2-1) clay Madrid 143 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Alexander Blockx (0-2) clay Munich 88 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Karim Bennani (2-1) clay Marrakech 132 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Jesper de Jong (2-0) clay Marrakech 101 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Rafael Jodar (1-2) hard Miami 112 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Francisco Cerundolo
vs
1
Yannick Hanfmann
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
1 - 1
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Madrid round of 64 on clay at a Masters 1000 event pits No. 20 Francisco Cerundolo against No. 60 Yannick Hanfmann. The model favors Cerundolo (76.12% win probability) over Hanfmann (23.88%), with a predicted total of about 22.92 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Cerundolo arrives as the higher-ranked and higher-Elo player (rank 20, Elo 1818.6) with a very strong return profile (mean return index 84.47) and a solid serve (mean serve index 76.85). He shows no tournament fatigue (0 minutes on court) and a surface strength index near 44. Hanfmann, ranked 60 with an Elo of 1687.9, posts a higher form index (64.02) and an imposing mean serve index of 98.02 — a difference of more than 21 points compared with Cerundolo’s serve, which is material. Hanfmann’s mean return (89.42) is also excellent, but his cumulative fatigue (143 minutes on court in Madrid) is a clear concern on the physically demanding clay. Recent form mirrors those numbers: Cerundolo won two matches in Munich before a 135-minute loss to Alexander Zverev, showing consistency on clay. Hanfmann reached Madrid’s early win over Marcos Giron in a 143-minute match but has mixed results in the prior weeks (a loss in Munich and a win in Marrakech). The contrast is freshness and consistency for Cerundolo versus a hot-serving but potentially tired Hanfmann.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 22.9 Most likely outcome: 22 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Francisco Cerundolo - Yannick Hanfmann) +4.6 Most likely spread: +5 (Francisco Cerundolo wins 5 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction is modest: the predicted aces total is 8.66, reflecting clay’s tendency to reduce free points. The expected double faults figure sits at 4.54; clay’s longer rallies and physical demands often raise double fault counts, especially for a fatigued server. Hanfmann’s significantly higher serve rating increases the likely ace share for him within the predicted aces, while Cerundolo’s returns will suppress easy service winners. This is both an aces prediction and a double faults prediction to watch.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 8.7 Most likely: 8 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.5 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Cerundolo’s edge comes from higher ranking, superior Elo and return ability combined with freshness on clay. The key factor will be whether Hanfmann’s big serve can hold up under fatigue; if it does, he can stretch the match, but if Cerundolo breaks early, the match should follow the model’s predicted outcome.

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