Australian Open Australia Hard Grand Slam Round of 128

Patrick Kypson vs Francisco Comesana: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Patrick Kypson

Rank: #118
26%
VS

Francisco Comesana

Rank: #66
74%
Expected Total Games: 37.7
Predicted Winner: Francisco Comesana

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Player Metrics

Patrick Kypson

Form Index: 17.9
ELO Rating: 492.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1523.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 1.4
Clay: 3.5
Grass: 3.6
Serve Rating: 68.1
Return Rating: 42.5

Francisco Comesana

Form Index: 32.7
ELO Rating: 785.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1564.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 20.4
Clay: 19.5
Grass: 17.1
Serve Rating: 98.5
Return Rating: 95.7

Recent Matches

Patrick Kypson

Francisco Comesana

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Patrick Kypson
vs
0
Francisco Comesana
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming match between Patrick Kypson and Francisco Comesana at the Australian Open represents a crucial contest in the Round of 128 on hard courts. With a significant difference in rankings and recent performances, Francisco Comesana is predicted to win with a probability of 73.74%, while Patrick Kypson has a 26.26% chance of victory. The expected total number of games played in this match is 37.66.

Match Analysis

Francisco Comesana currently holds a rank of 66, significantly higher than Patrick Kypson, who is ranked at 118. Comesana's form index stands at 32.71, reflecting better recent performance compared to Kypson's 17.89. Additionally, Comesana’s Elo rating of 785.49 indicates a stronger overall competitive standing than Kypson's 492.62. Both players show no signs of fatigue, which could provide an equal footing in terms of stamina. Notably, Comesana has a mean serve index of 98.50 compared to Kypson's 68.11, a difference of over 30 points, highlighting Comesana's superior serving ability. Furthermore, Comesana's mean return index of 95.67 also surpasses Kypson's 42.52 by a substantial margin, suggesting that he could perform better on return games. In their recent matches, Kypson has struggled, losing his last two encounters, including a straight-set defeat to Emilio Nava. Conversely, Comesana's recent performances have been mixed, but he exhibited a strong showing against Valentin Royer, winning in straight sets. This contrast in form and momentum could play a significant role in their upcoming match.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 37.7 Most likely outcome: 37 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Patrick Kypson versus Francisco Comesana. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Patrick Kypson versus Francisco Comesana. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Patrick Kypson - Francisco Comesana) +2.7 Most likely spread: +2 (Patrick Kypson wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Patrick Kypson versus Francisco Comesana. Positive values indicate Patrick Kypson winning more games, negative values indicate Francisco Comesana winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Patrick Kypson versus Francisco Comesana. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The match is expected to feature approximately 8.33 aces, with both players capable of delivering powerful serves due to the medium-paced hard court surface. The expected double faults prediction stands at around 4.88, indicating that both players may struggle with consistency at times. Given Comesana's higher mean serve index, he is likely to contribute more to the ace count than Kypson, potentially capitalizing on any opening in Kypson’s return game.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 8.3 Most likely: 8 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 4.9 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Patrick Kypson versus Francisco Comesana. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Patrick Kypson versus Francisco Comesana. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Patrick Kypson versus Francisco Comesana. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Patrick Kypson versus Francisco Comesana. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

Final Prediction

Francisco Comesana’s superior rank, form, and serve strength provide him with a distinct advantage heading into this match. One key factor to watch will be how well Kypson can handle Comesana's serve, as this could dictate the flow of the match and ultimately impact the outcome.

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