Eastbourne
Great Britain
Grass
Atp 250
Round of 32
Matteo Arnaldi vs Giles Hussey: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults
Expected Total Games:
22.4
Predicted Winner:
Matteo Arnaldi
Why the Model Favors Matteo Arnaldi
The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.
Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 72% for Matteo Arnaldi. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network — not editorial opinion. How to read this →
Also available in Claude. Query these predictions in plain language — our native connector lets Claude call our models on demand, no code.
Set it upRanking Trends
Matteo Arnaldi
- Current #35 2026-06-22
- 3 mo ago #101 2026-03-16
- 6 mo ago #61 2025-12-22
- 9 mo ago #73 2025-09-22
- 12 mo ago #44 2025-06-23
Giles Hussey
- Current #293 2026-06-15
- 3 mo ago #320 2026-03-16
- 6 mo ago #333 2025-12-22
- 9 mo ago #356 2025-09-22
- 12 mo ago #376 2025-06-23
Player Metrics
Matteo Arnaldi
Form Index:
81.2
ELO Rating:
1810.7
Glicko2 Rating:
1718.8
Current Fatigue (minutes):
262.0
Surface Strength:
Hard:
11.6
Clay:
36.1
Grass:
9.2
Serve Rating:
95.6
Return Rating:
92.5
Giles Hussey
Form Index:
40.1
ELO Rating:
1548.5
Glicko2 Rating:
1742.4
Current Fatigue (minutes):
184.0
Surface Strength:
Hard:
11.2
Clay:
10.9
Grass:
8.7
Serve Rating:
97.7
Return Rating:
92.2
Recent Matches
Matteo Arnaldi
- Last Match: vs Toby Samuel (2-1) grass Eastbourne 127 min
- 2nd Last Match: vs Alastair Gray (2-0) grass Eastbourne 135 min
- 3rd Last Match: vs Matteo Berrettini (2-0) clay Roland Garros 174 min
- 4th Last Match: vs Frances Tiafoe (3-2) clay Roland Garros 174 min
- 5th Last Match: vs Raphael Collignon (3-2) clay Roland Garros 174 min
Giles Hussey
- Last Match: vs Marco Trungelliti (2-0) grass Eastbourne 105 min
- 2nd Last Match: vs James Duckworth (2-0) grass Eastbourne 79 min
- 3rd Last Match: vs None (0-0) None None 0 min
- 4th Last Match: vs None (0-0) None None 0 min
- 5th Last Match: vs None (0-0) None None 0 min
Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)
0
Matteo Arnaldi
vs
0
Giles Hussey
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0
Key Prediction Insights
At the Eastbourne 250-level event in Great Britain, Matteo Arnaldi meets Giles Hussey in a Round of 32 grass-court clash. The model projects Arnaldi to win with 72.39% probability versus Hussey at 27.61%, and forecasts a relatively short match of about 22.4 total games.
Match Analysis
The model’s edge for Arnaldi comes mainly from his recent record by level and overall strength, with serve & return also contributing heavily. Arnaldi is substantially higher-ranked (No. 35 vs No. 293), carries a stronger form index (81.18 vs 40.14) and a higher Elo (1810.66 vs 1548.46), which together drive the 11.4 and 9.4 percentage-point advantages. His mean serve and return indices are both strong (serve 95.61, return 92.51) and combine to push an additional 8.0 points toward him. Fatigue is higher for Arnaldi (262 vs 184 minutes), but the model still gives him a small positive adjustment from workload.
Surface fit is the lone area nudging toward Hussey (+3.7 points). Though their surface strength indices are similar (Arnaldi 9.19, Hussey 8.70), Hussey’s back-to-back straight-set grass wins at Eastbourne (over Trungelliti and Duckworth) suggest comfort on this surface, which the explainability engine captured. Recent form summaries: Arnaldi is on a three-match winning run (including two tedious grass wins here and a straight-sets clay win), while Hussey has won his two Eastbourne matches in straight sets after limited prior tour activity.
Total Games Predictions
Expected Total Games in Match
22.4
Most likely outcome: 22 games
Total Games Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total games outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total games ≤ X
Games Spread Predictions
Expected Games Spread (Matteo Arnaldi - Giles Hussey)
+3.3
Most likely spread:
+3 (Matteo Arnaldi wins 3 more games)
Games Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each games spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
Aces and Double Faults Predictions
The aces prediction for the match is 9.77 total, with an expected double faults total of 5.99. Grass favors big servers and should boost the predicted aces; both players have strong serve indices, with Hussey slightly higher (97.75 vs 95.61), which could lift the predicted aces toward him on his service games. The expected double faults reflect moderate serving pressure in what the model sees as a short match.
Expected Total Aces
9.8
Most likely: 9 aces
Expected Total Double Faults
6.0
Most likely: 5 double faults
Aces Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each ace count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of aces ≤ X
Double Faults Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each double fault count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of double faults ≤ X
Match Format Predictions
Tiebreak Likelihood
Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match
39.6%
Predicted:
No tiebreak
Exact Score Distribution BO3
Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Matteo Arnaldi's perspective)
2-0
Most likely set score (52.0%)
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Download Probability Data
Full distributions as structured data (JSON or CSV)
Final Prediction
Arnaldi’s clear edge stems chiefly from his recent results at this level (the top model factor), reinforced by superior overall metrics and a balanced serve/return profile. Watch the serving potency and early return games—if Hussey’s big serve fires, he can shorten points and make the match tighter than the projection.
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