Matteo Arnaldi
ATP ELO profile · tour-level matches since 2015
Season ELO trajectory
One point per match: the player's ELO rating after that match, matches in round order. Ratings are season-scoped: every January the engine re-seeds each player from ATP entry points, then updates after every result. That is why trajectories are shown one season at a time. Hover a point for the match behind it.
Career record
98-92 51.6% in 190 matches
Season by season
| Season | M | W-L | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 35 | 15-20 | 1586 | 1811 | 1631 |
| 2025 | 48 | 23-25 | 1632 | 1747 | 1616 |
| 2024 | 50 | 26-24 | 1602 | 1835 | 1702 |
| 2023 | 52 | 32-20 | 1542 | 1829 | 1783 |
| 2022 | 5 | 2-3 | 1512 | 1573 | 1543 |
Recent matches
| Week | Tournament | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19, 2026 | Marseille · Hard | Lorenzo Musetti | L 0-2 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Shanghai · Hard | Taylor Fritz | L 0-2 |
| Bernard Tomic | W 2-0 | ||
| Sep 30, 2026 | Tokio · Hard | Carlos Alcaraz | L 0-2 |
| Rei Sakamoto | W 2-1 | ||
| Aug 30, 2026 | Us Open · Hard | James Duckworth | L 1-3 |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Cincinnati · Hard | Martin Landaluce | L 1-2 |
| Aug 02, 2026 | Toronto · Hard | Tallon Griekspoor | L 1-2 |
| Fabian Marozsan | W 2-1 | ||
| Jul 27, 2026 | Washington · Hard | Lorenzo Musetti | L |
Serve predictions: how close do we get on Matteo Arnaldi?
Comparison covers 38 of the 43 aces projections we made in 2025. A match needs five earlier matches on record before the baseline exists.
The baseline predicts a player's aces as the average of their last five matches. Our model beats it when its projections land closer to what actually happened. Both numbers are the average miss per match, so lower is better, and both are for the selected season only.
Predictability: does Matteo Arnaldi follow the script?
Wild card · 2026| Season | M | W-L | Model hit | Upsets | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 28 | 11-17 | 39.3% | 17 vs 10.4 exp | Wild card |
| 2025 | 43 | 20-23 | 53.5% | 20 vs 17.1 exp | On serve |
| 2024 bt | 50 | 26-24 | 68.0% | 16 vs 19.0 exp | On serve |
An upset = our model's favorite losing. "Upsets" compares how many actually happened in Matteo Arnaldi's matches with how many the model expected for that exact schedule. A season-level read (a wild-card season does not carry over year to year). How to read this · full board: most predictable ATP players.
Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0
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Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/tennis-power-rankings/matteo-arnaldi">ATP ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)