Winston Salem NC, U.S.A. Hard Atp 250 Round of 64

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Jenson Brooksby: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

VS

Jenson Brooksby

Rank: #74
60%
Expected Total Games: 26.0
Predicted Winner: Jenson Brooksby

Why the Model Favors Jenson Brooksby

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Surface fit +3.5 Jenson Brooksby
Recent record by level +3.4 Jenson Brooksby
Overall record & opposition quality +2.2 Jenson Brooksby
Recent form +1.4 Jenson Brooksby
Age +1.3 Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 60% for Jenson Brooksby. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Player Metrics

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

Form Index: 23.1
ELO Rating: 1487.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1582.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 11.1
Clay: 13.2
Grass: 9.8
Serve Rating: 98.5
Return Rating: 82.5

Jenson Brooksby

Form Index: 38.4
ELO Rating: 1585.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1585.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 18.4
Clay: 14.9
Grass: 21.2
Serve Rating: 95.1
Return Rating: 87.9

Recent Matches

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

  • Last Match: vs Trevor Svajda (1-2) hard Cincinnati 86 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Botic van de Zandschulp (1-2) hard Toronto 114 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Yannick Hanfmann (1-3) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Corentin Moutet (1-2) grass London 170 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Aleksandar Kovacevic (2-0) grass London 64 min

Jenson Brooksby

  • Last Match: vs Jaime Faria (0-2) hard Cincinnati 74 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Ben Shelton (0-2) hard Toronto 96 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Adam Walton (2-0) hard Toronto 88 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Coleman Wong (0-2) hard Los Cabos 89 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Edward Winter (2-0) hard Los Cabos 100 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
vs
0
Jenson Brooksby
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Winston-Salem, North Carolina, Round of 64 on hard courts at a 250 event. The model favors Jenson Brooksby to win, with a 59.64% probability versus 40.36% for Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard. The match is expected to be competitive, with a projected total of about 25.96 games.

Match Analysis

The model’s edge for Brooksby comes mainly from surface fit and recent record by level. Surface fit contributes 3.5 percentage points toward Brooksby, and recent results by tournament level add another 3.4 points. Brooksby’s surface strength index is 18.39 compared with Perricard’s 11.13, which aligns with the model favoring Brooksby on a medium paced hard court. Brooksby also carries the higher Elo at 1584.96, versus Perricard’s 1487.83, and a stronger form index at 38.39 compared with 23.11 for Perricard. Both players arrive with no in-tournament fatigue. Serve and return profiles are relevant. Giovanni posts a mean serve index of 98.45 and a mean return index of 82.50. Brooksby’s mean serve index is 95.08 and mean return index is 87.95. The mean return gap of about 5.45 points favors Brooksby and could be decisive on hard courts where returns matter. Rank positions mirror the edge, with Brooksby at 74 and Perricard at 92. Recent form shows Perricard has lost his last three matches (Cincinnati, Toronto, Wimbledon), all straight or extended losses. Brooksby is 1-2 in his last three, with a decisive straight sets win over Adam Walton followed by two tougher losses to higher level opposition.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 26.0 Most likely outcome: 26 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard versus Jenson Brooksby. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard versus Jenson Brooksby. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard - Jenson Brooksby) -1.4 Most likely spread: -2 (Jenson Brooksby wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard versus Jenson Brooksby. Positive values indicate Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard winning more games, negative values indicate Jenson Brooksby winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard versus Jenson Brooksby. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this match sits at a predicted aces total of about 18.35. The expected double faults figure is 5.89, so the double faults prediction remains moderate. Hard courts tend to produce a balanced ace count compared with grass or clay, so the predicted aces reflect a medium pace surface. No player posts a dramatically higher serve rating, so neither should dominate the ace count purely on serve power.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 18.4 Most likely: 18 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 5.9 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard versus Jenson Brooksby. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard versus Jenson Brooksby. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard versus Jenson Brooksby. The chart shows the predicted probability for each double-fault count.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard versus Jenson Brooksby. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

47.6% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (35.4%)
Probability distribution of the final set score from Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard's perspective. Format: BO3.

Final Prediction

Brooksby’s advantage is anchored in surface fit, the top model key factor, and a stronger recent record at higher tournament levels. Watch Brooksby’s return effectiveness against Perricard’s serving games. That matchup dynamic is likely to decide close service games and the final outcome.

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