Australian Open Australia Hard Grand Slam Round of 128

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Sebastian Baez: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

Rank: #67
40%
VS

Sebastian Baez

Rank: #43
60%
Expected Total Games: 40.4
Predicted Winner: Sebastian Baez

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Ranking Trends

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

  • Current #67 2026-01-05
  • 3 mo ago #33 2025-10-20
  • 6 mo ago #45 2025-07-21
  • 9 mo ago #37 2025-04-21
  • 12 mo ago #30 2025-01-13

Sebastian Baez

  • Current #43 2026-01-05
  • 3 mo ago #43 2025-10-20
  • 6 mo ago #43 2025-07-21
  • 9 mo ago #33 2025-04-21
  • 12 mo ago #28 2025-01-13

Player Metrics

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

Form Index: 49.5
ELO Rating: 974.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1668.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 7.1
Clay: 6.6
Grass: 6.1
Serve Rating: 100.0
Return Rating: 6.1

Sebastian Baez

Form Index: 60.2
ELO Rating: 1281.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1680.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 8.7
Clay: 8.6
Grass: 10.0
Serve Rating: 97.3
Return Rating: 98.4

Recent Matches

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
❌ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

Sebastian Baez
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
vs
0
Sebastian Baez
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming match between Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard and Sebastian Baez at the Australian Open marks an important Round of 128 clash on hard courts. With both players looking to advance, the predicted winner is Sebastian Baez, who holds a probability of winning at 60.43%, while Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard stands at 39.57%. The expected total number of games in the match is approximately 40.35.

Match Analysis

In terms of rankings, Sebastian Baez is positioned higher at 43 compared to Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, who is ranked 67. Baez also enjoys a notable advantage in the Elo rating, sitting at 1281.8 while Perricard's rating is at 974.0. When evaluating their form index, Baez again leads with a score of 60.22 against Perricard's 49.48. Both players currently have zero fatigue, which means they come into this match fresh. The surface strength index further favors Baez (8.72) over Perricard (7.08), indicating that Baez is better suited for the hard court conditions. Notably, there is a significant difference in the mean return index, with Baez at 98.39 compared to Perricard's 6.05. In their recent performances, Baez has been dominant, winning all three of his last matches without dropping a single set. His victories over players like Marcos Giron and Ben Shelton demonstrate his current form and effectiveness on hard courts. Conversely, Perricard has had mixed results, winning two out of his last three matches, with a notable loss against Jakub Mensik in his most recent outing.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 40.4 Most likely outcome: 40 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard - Sebastian Baez) +1.8 Most likely spread: +1 (Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The match is expected to see a total of approximately 10.93 aces and 5.15 double faults. Given the medium-paced nature of hard courts, the predicted aces reflect a balanced environment that benefits both powerful servers and adept returners. While both players have comparable serve indices, Baez's stronger return game could lead to fewer double faults for him, making the aces prediction more favorable for him as well.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.9 Most likely: 10 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.2 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Sebastian Baez holds a clear edge in terms of form, ranking, and performance metrics, suggesting he is likely to emerge victorious in this match. A key factor to watch will be Baez's return game, as his ability to effectively handle Perricard's serves could be decisive in determining the match's outcome.

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