Cincinnati OH, U.S.A. Hard Masters 1000 Round of 32

Hamad Medjedovic vs Carlos Alcaraz Prediction

Hamad Medjedovic

Rank: #72
22%
VS

Carlos Alcaraz

Rank: #2
78%
Expected Total Games: 21.0
Predicted Winner: Carlos Alcaraz

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Ranking Trends

Hamad Medjedovic

  • Current #72 2025-08-04
  • 3 mo ago #72 2025-05-05
  • 6 mo ago #95 2025-02-03
  • 9 mo ago #156 2024-11-04
  • 12 mo ago #139 2024-08-12

Carlos Alcaraz

  • Current #2 2025-08-04
  • 3 mo ago #3 2025-05-05
  • 6 mo ago #3 2025-02-03
  • 9 mo ago #3 2024-11-04
  • 12 mo ago #3 2024-08-12

Player Metrics

Hamad Medjedovic

Form Index: 46.7
ELO Rating: 935.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1594.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 162.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 10.0
Clay: 7.0
Grass: 4.8
Serve Rating: 97.3
Return Rating: 85.8

Carlos Alcaraz

Form Index: 84.6
ELO Rating: 6661.2
Glicko2 Rating: 2357.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 101.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 54.6
Clay: 60.8
Grass: 58.9
Serve Rating: 94.5
Return Rating: 87.4

Recent Matches

Hamad Medjedovic
✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅

Carlos Alcaraz
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Damir Dzumhur (2-1) hard Cincinnati 101 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Jannik Sinner (1-3) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Taylor Fritz (3-1) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Cameron Norrie (3-0) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Andrey Rublev (3-1) grass Wimbledon 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Hamad Medjedovic
vs
0
Carlos Alcaraz
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 32 at the Cincinnati Masters 1000, Carlos Alcaraz faces off against Hamad Medjedovic on hard courts in Ohio. The predicted winner is Carlos Alcaraz, with a win probability of 78.18%, while Medjedovic has a 21.82% chance of claiming victory. The match is expected to feature a total of approximately 21 games.

Match Analysis

Carlos Alcaraz, currently ranked 2nd, showcases an impressive form index of 84.59 and an Elo rating of 6661.20, reflecting his status as a top competitor. His fatigue level is relatively low at 101 minutes and he has a strong surface strength index of 54.58. In contrast, Hamad Medjedovic, ranked 72nd, has a lower form index of 46.69 and an Elo rating of 935.90, indicating a significant gap in competitive experience and performance. Medjedovic's fatigue level is higher at 162 minutes, which could impact his performance. A notable difference lies in their mean serve indices, with Alcaraz at 94.48 and Medjedovic at 97.34, showing that Medjedovic has a slight edge on serve. However, Alcaraz's mean return index of 87.41 surpasses Medjedovic's 85.76, indicating a stronger return game. In their recent performances, both players have shown resilience; Medjedovic has won his last two matches convincingly in Cincinnati, while Alcaraz bounced back from a tough loss at Wimbledon to win his recent match against Damir Dzumhur.

Final Prediction

Carlos Alcaraz's superior ranking, form, and return capabilities give him a significant advantage in this matchup. The key factor to watch will be Medjedovic's ability to maintain his serve against Alcaraz's aggressive return game, which could be pivotal in determining the match's outcome.

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