Basel Switzerland Hard Atp 500 Round of 16

Hubert Hurkacz vs Holger Rune Prediction

Hubert Hurkacz

Rank: #28
59%
VS

Holger Rune

Rank: #195
41%
Expected Total Games: 23.7
Predicted Winner: Hubert Hurkacz

Why the Model Favors Hubert Hurkacz

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Serve & return game +5.1 Hubert Hurkacz
Overall record & opposition quality +4.2 Hubert Hurkacz
Recent form +2.9 Hubert Hurkacz
Age +2.7 Holger Rune
Overall strength +1.6 Hubert Hurkacz

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 59% for Hubert Hurkacz. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Hubert Hurkacz

  • Current #28 2026-10-26
  • 3 mo ago #71 2026-07-27
  • 6 mo ago #63 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #55 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #77 2025-10-27

Holger Rune

  • Current #195 2026-10-05
  • 3 mo ago #82 2026-07-27
  • 6 mo ago #39 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #16 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #12 2025-10-27

Player Metrics

Hubert Hurkacz

Form Index: 66.1
ELO Rating: 1846.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1809.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 112.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 35.8
Clay: 23.1
Grass: 20.7
Serve Rating: 97.7
Return Rating: 87.5

Holger Rune

Form Index: 34.0
ELO Rating: 1713.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1697.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 160.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 29.0
Clay: 36.6
Grass: 20.1
Serve Rating: 96.1
Return Rating: 87.6

Recent Matches

Hubert Hurkacz
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅

Holger Rune
✅ ❌ ❌ ❌ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Hubert Hurkacz
vs
0
Holger Rune
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Hurkacz is favored, though the forecast is fairly close: he has a 59% win probability to Rune’s 41%, with 23.7 games expected. This Round of 16 match in Basel is projected to be competitive.

Match Analysis

The main separation is Hurkacz’s serve. His service profile is stronger, while the two are close on return, with Rune only marginally ahead. Hurkacz’s ability to earn more points directly from his serve should help him protect his service games. Hurkacz also has the higher ranking, 28th to Rune’s 195th, and better recent results, winning two of his last three matches compared with Rune’s one. Their Basel openers brought different workloads: Hurkacz spent 112 minutes beating Zizou Bergs, while Rune needed 160 minutes against Quentin Halys. Age is one of the few factors pointing toward Rune.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.7 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Hubert Hurkacz - Holger Rune) +1.4 Most likely spread: +1 (Hubert Hurkacz wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Hurkacz is projected for 11.2 aces and 1.8 double faults, compared with 6.3 aces and 2.2 double faults for Rune. Hurkacz’s stronger serve profile explains the expected ace gap, while the double-fault estimates are close.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 16.4 Most likely: 15 aces Per player: Hubert Hurkacz 11.2 + Holger Rune 6.2
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.0 Most likely: 3 double faults Per player: Hubert Hurkacz 1.8 + Holger Rune 2.2

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Hubert Hurkacz

Expected 11.2 aces

Holger Rune

Expected 6.2 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Hubert Hurkacz

Expected 1.8 double faults

Holger Rune

Expected 2.2 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

47.5% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Hubert Hurkacz's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (38.8%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Rune’s slightly better return profile is his clearest way to challenge the forecast. If he can make Hurkacz play more points behind serve, the projected ace advantage may count for less.

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