Rio Brazil Clay Atp 500 Round of 32

Igor Marcondes vs Ignacio Buse: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Igor Marcondes

Rank: #350
45%
VS

Ignacio Buse

Rank: #96
55%
Expected Total Games: 23.1
Predicted Winner: Ignacio Buse

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Ranking Trends

Igor Marcondes

  • Current #350 2026-02-09
  • 3 mo ago #469 2025-11-17
  • 6 mo ago #1000 None
  • 9 mo ago #1000 None
  • 12 mo ago #1000 None

Ignacio Buse

  • Current #96 2026-02-09
  • 3 mo ago #105 2025-11-17
  • 6 mo ago #136 2025-08-18
  • 9 mo ago #177 2025-05-19
  • 12 mo ago #230 2025-02-17

Player Metrics

Igor Marcondes

Form Index: 46.0
ELO Rating: 186.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1777.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 207.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 1.0
Clay: 1.7
Grass: 1.0
Serve Rating: 92.8
Return Rating: 55.0

Ignacio Buse

Form Index: 47.8
ELO Rating: 634.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1525.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 4.7
Clay: 6.0
Grass: 5.3
Serve Rating: 95.8
Return Rating: 90.6

Recent Matches

Igor Marcondes
✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Jaime Faria (2-0) clay Rio 97 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Chun-Hsin Tseng (2-0) clay Rio 110 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs None (0-0) None None 0 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs None (0-0) None None 0 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs None (0-0) None None 0 min

Ignacio Buse
❌ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Igor Marcondes
vs
0
Ignacio Buse
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This round-of-32 clash in Rio (Brazil) is a 500-level clay event and pits Igor Marcondes against Ignacio Buse. The model favors Ignacio Buse (55.31%) over Igor Marcondes (44.69%) with an expected total of about 23.14 games in the match.

Match Analysis

On paper Buse holds the higher ranking (96 vs 350) and a substantially stronger Elo (633.96 vs 186.08), suggesting a consistent edge in underlying performance metrics. Form indices are similar (Marcondes 46.02, Buse 47.84). Marcondes carries 207 minutes of court time in this tournament while Buse arrives with zero tournament minutes, so match-to-match fatigue is an important differential on demanding clay. Surface strength indices are low for both (Marcondes 1.73, Buse 6.00), indicating neither has a pronounced clay specialty in the proprietary scale provided. Mean serve indices are close (Marcondes 92.80, Buse 95.79) so there isn’t a large serving gap, but Buse’s mean return index (90.57) is far superior to Marcondes’s (55.02), marking a clear advantage when returning. Marcondes’ recent run in Rio shows two straight-set wins (against Jaime Faria and Chun-Hsin Tseng) with long match times (97 and 110 minutes), demonstrating match sharpness but also contributing to fatigue. Buse’s last three matches are mixed: a solid three-set win over Francesco Passaro (154 minutes) in Buenos Aires, and losses to Sebastian Baez (straight sets) and Arthur Fery, indicating he can both grind out long matches and be vulnerable against higher-level opponents on clay.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.1 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Igor Marcondes - Ignacio Buse) -0.5 Most likely spread: -1 (Ignacio Buse wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this clay matchup is modest: the predicted aces total is 6.72. Predicted aces are constrained by clay’s slower bounce and longer rallies. The double faults prediction is 4.11 expected double faults; longer rallies and fatigue (notably Marcondes’ accumulated minutes) can increase pressure serving late in sets. Neither player has a dramatically higher serve rating, so the ace count should remain moderate.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 6.7 Most likely: 6 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.1 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Buse’s higher rank, much stronger Elo and markedly better return index give him the edge in the prediction. Watch how Marcondes’ accumulated court time affects his serve and movement—if fatigue rises, Buse’s return strength is the key factor that can decide the match.

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