Indian Wells CA, U.S.A. Hard Masters 1000 Round of 128

Jacob Fearnley vs Damir Dzumhur: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Jacob Fearnley

Rank: #90
42%
VS

Damir Dzumhur

Rank: #60
58%
Expected Total Games: 22.5
Predicted Winner: Damir Dzumhur

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Ranking Trends

Jacob Fearnley

  • Current #90 2026-02-23
  • 3 mo ago #71 2025-12-01
  • 6 mo ago #60 2025-08-25
  • 9 mo ago #55 2025-05-26
  • 12 mo ago #81 2025-03-03

Damir Dzumhur

  • Current #60 2026-02-23
  • 3 mo ago #65 2025-12-01
  • 6 mo ago #61 2025-08-25
  • 9 mo ago #69 2025-05-26
  • 12 mo ago #84 2025-03-03

Player Metrics

Jacob Fearnley

Form Index: 20.4
ELO Rating: 668.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1554.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 4.4
Clay: 6.4
Grass: 7.7
Serve Rating: 69.1
Return Rating: 74.2

Damir Dzumhur

Form Index: 26.7
ELO Rating: 745.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1556.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.5
Clay: 7.6
Grass: 6.9
Serve Rating: 97.3
Return Rating: 93.2

Recent Matches

Jacob Fearnley
❌ ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌

Damir Dzumhur
❌ ❌ ✅ ❌ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Jacob Fearnley
vs
0
Damir Dzumhur
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Indian Wells, CA — first round on hard courts at a Masters 1000 event sets up a contrast in styles as Jacob Fearnley meets Damir Dzumhur. The model gives Dzumhur the edge: 57.62% to win versus Fearnley’s 42.38%, with a predicted total of about 22.46 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Rankings and ratings favor Dzumhur (No. 60) over Fearnley (No. 90); his Elo sits noticeably higher (745.14 vs 668.93) and his form index is also a few points superior (26.69 to 20.36). Both arrive with no accumulated tournament fatigue. Surface strength indices are low for each (Fearnley 4.37, Dzumhur 6.45), suggesting neither is particularly specialized on hard courts according to the proprietary metric. Serve and return profiles tilt clearly toward Dzumhur. His mean serve index (97.29) exceeds Fearnley’s (69.14) by more than 5 points, and his mean return index (93.17) similarly outpaces Fearnley’s (74.22). Those gaps point to a player who can both produce free points and handle opponents’ service games more consistently on a medium-paced hard court. Recent form shows Fearnley struggling in three straight losses, including a long Australian Open five-set loss and earlier straight-set defeats in Adelaide. Dzumhur’s recent slate is mixed but slightly better—two defeats followed by a win in Rio—indicating flashes of resilience.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 22.5 Most likely outcome: 22 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Jacob Fearnley - Damir Dzumhur) -0.6 Most likely spread: -1 (Damir Dzumhur wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this match is moderate: the model forecasts about 10.95 predicted aces for the contest, and an expected double faults total near 5.02. On a medium-paced hard court, that predicted aces number reflects a balance between serve potency and return quality; Dzumhur’s much higher serve rating should lift the predicted aces count, while the return numbers temper runaway serve dominance. Expect the double faults prediction to be modest but present given both players’ activity on serve.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.9 Most likely: 10 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.0 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Dzumhur’s superior Elo and much stronger serve/return metrics give him the edge in this first-round match. The key factor to watch will be whether Fearnley can neutralize Dzumhur’s serve and convert early break opportunities; the match shape will likely be decided by a handful of pivotal return games.

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