Jaime Faria vs Gonzalo Bueno: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model’s edge for Faria comes mainly from recent form and recent record by level: his higher form index and better results against comparable opposition tilt the balance. Faria sits at world No. 88 with a form index of 68.67 and an Elo of 1768.9, while Bueno is No. 180 with a form index of 42.32 and an Elo of 1523.4. Surface strength also favors Faria (26.30 vs 14.94), and his mean return index (88.05) is a notch above Bueno’s (84.86), suggesting Faria will be more effective in the longer rallies clay produces. Fatigue is a clear storyline: Faria has logged 73 minutes so far in this event, whereas Bueno arrives extremely tired after 412 minutes on court. That accumulation for Bueno includes long three-setters (137 and 170 minutes), which likely erodes his legs and consistency. Serve/return profiles are fairly similar—mean serve indexes of 95.21 (Faria) and 93.22 (Bueno) do not differ by more than five points—so any advantage is likely to come from baseline play and movement rather than pure serving power. Over their last three matches Faria has two wins and a tight loss to a top opponent (Ruud), while Bueno has strung together three wins at Estoril but at the cost of lengthy matches.