Roland Garros France Clay Grand Slam Round of 64

Jan-Lennard Struff vs Jaime Faria: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Jan-Lennard Struff

Rank: #79
23%
VS

Jaime Faria

Rank: #117
77%
Expected Total Games: 40.7
Predicted Winner: Jaime Faria

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Ranking Trends

Jan-Lennard Struff

  • Current #79 2026-05-18
  • 3 mo ago #80 2026-02-23
  • 6 mo ago #84 2025-11-24
  • 9 mo ago #144 2025-08-25
  • 12 mo ago #87 2025-05-26

Jaime Faria

  • Current #117 2026-05-18
  • 3 mo ago #145 2026-02-23
  • 6 mo ago #152 2025-11-24
  • 9 mo ago #117 2025-08-25
  • 12 mo ago #115 2025-05-26

Player Metrics

Jan-Lennard Struff

Form Index: 41.1
ELO Rating: 1570.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1556.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 174.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 15.8
Clay: 17.8
Grass: 19.3
Serve Rating: 95.6
Return Rating: 91.8

Jaime Faria

Form Index: 79.2
ELO Rating: 1740.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1782.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 696.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 24.9
Clay: 24.7
Grass: 14.1
Serve Rating: 93.6
Return Rating: 86.3

Recent Matches

Jan-Lennard Struff
✅ ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌

Jaime Faria
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Denis Shapovalov (3-0) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Lukas Neumayer (2-0) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Colton Smith (2-1) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Grigor Dimitrov (2-1) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Pablo Llamas Ruiz (1-2) clay Rome 115 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Jan-Lennard Struff
vs
0
Jaime Faria
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At Roland Garros in Paris, round of 64 on clay, Jaime Faria enters as the clear favorite against Jan-Lennard Struff. The model projects Faria to win with 77.25% probability versus 22.75% for Struff, and forecasts a relatively short five-set-like total of about 40.66 games.

Match Analysis

Struff (rank 79) arrives with an Elo of 1570 and a form index of 41.1; his cumulative time on court in this event is modest at 174 minutes and his surface strength index on clay is 17.8. Faria (rank 117) carries a much higher Elo (1740) and a strong form index of 79.2, but his tournament fatigue is substantial at 696 minutes; his surface strength index is slightly higher at 24.7. The mean serve indices are close (Struff 95.6, Faria 93.6), so serve power is similar, while Struff’s mean return index (91.8) is more than five points better than Faria’s (86.3), a notable edge for return games. Over the last three matches their trajectories diverge. Struff’s recent clay results include a big opening win here over Alexander Bublik (3-1) but two prior straight-set defeats in Hamburg and Rome. Faria is on a run at Roland Garros with three successive wins — including a straight-sets victory over Denis Shapovalov — and consistent match play throughout the tournament. That gives Faria clear momentum despite his heavy minutes on court.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 40.7 Most likely outcome: 40 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Jan-Lennard Struff - Jaime Faria) -1.9 Most likely spread: -2 (Jaime Faria wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is 17.51 total and the predicted double faults sit at 9.28. On clay, the expected number of aces tends to be lower because the surface slows the ball and increases return opportunities; predicted aces reflect that. The expected double faults figure is elevated by cumulative fatigue, and because neither player has a markedly superior serve rating, the double faults prediction may hinge on who shows cleaner serving under pressure.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 17.5 Most likely: 17 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 9.3 Most likely: 9 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

47.1% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO5

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Jan-Lennard Struff's perspective)

0-3 Most likely set score (33.0%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Faria’s higher Elo and strong recent form are the principal reasons he is favored here, while Struff’s superior return index is the key counterweight. Watch how Faria’s heavy minutes affect his serve consistency; that will likely decide whether Struff can turn his return edge into an upset.

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