Vienna Austria Hard Atp 500 Round of 16

Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Prediction

Jakub Mensik

Rank: #16
80%
VS

Adrian Mannarino

Rank: #73
20%
Expected Total Games: 24.7
Predicted Winner: Jakub Mensik

Why the Model Favors Jakub Mensik

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Serve & return game +7.5 Jakub Mensik
Age +7.1 Jakub Mensik
Recent record by level +6.2 Jakub Mensik
Surface fit +3.9 Jakub Mensik
Overall strength +2.8 Jakub Mensik

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 80% for Jakub Mensik. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Also available in Claude and Perplexity. Query these predictions in plain language: our native connector lets your AI assistant call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Ranking Trends

Jakub Mensik

  • Current #16 2026-10-26
  • 3 mo ago #17 2026-07-27
  • 6 mo ago #27 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #17 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #19 2025-10-27

Adrian Mannarino

  • Current #73 2026-10-26
  • 3 mo ago #47 2026-07-27
  • 6 mo ago #46 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #69 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #60 2025-10-27

Player Metrics

Jakub Mensik

Form Index: 52.4
ELO Rating: 1821.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1861.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 63.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 37.5
Clay: 39.9
Grass: 18.9
Serve Rating: 97.0
Return Rating: 88.7

Adrian Mannarino

Form Index: 59.9
ELO Rating: 1712.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1675.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 373.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 28.9
Clay: 0.0
Grass: 22.1
Serve Rating: 95.4
Return Rating: 87.5

Recent Matches

Jakub Mensik
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

Adrian Mannarino
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Jakub Mensik
vs
1
Adrian Mannarino
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 1

Key Prediction Insights

Mensik is favoured to win, with the forecast giving him 80% to Mannarino’s 20%. It projects 24.7 games in this Round of 16 match in Vienna.

Match Analysis

The main separation is in serve and return: Mensik has the stronger profile in both, which gives him more ways to pressure Mannarino’s service games and protect his own. His rank of 16, compared with Mannarino’s 73, also reflects a substantial gap in overall strength. Mensik has the better hard-court profile, while Mannarino’s recent results are encouraging: he has won all three of his recent Vienna matches. But those wins have come at a cost, with 373 minutes on court in the tournament so far, against 63 for Mensik. Mensik also arrives off a straight-sets win over Lukas Neumayer.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.7 Most likely outcome: 24 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Jakub Mensik - Adrian Mannarino) +2.8 Most likely spread: +3 (Jakub Mensik wins 3 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Mensik is projected to hit 11.7 aces and 2.8 double faults, while Mannarino is projected for 4.2 aces and 2.0 double faults. The gap in expected aces reflects Mensik’s stronger serving profile, and the hard court offers a consistent bounce that can help him build on it.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 15.1 Most likely: 13 aces Per player: Jakub Mensik 11.7 + Adrian Mannarino 4.2
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.8 Most likely: 3 double faults Per player: Jakub Mensik 2.8 + Adrian Mannarino 2.0

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Jakub Mensik

Expected 11.7 aces

Adrian Mannarino

Expected 4.2 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Jakub Mensik

Expected 2.8 double faults

Adrian Mannarino

Expected 2.0 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

41.7% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Jakub Mensik's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (49.8%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Mannarino’s run of three Vienna wins is the clearest threat to the forecast, especially if he can keep returning effectively despite the heavier workload. Mensik’s advantage in serve and return leaves him better placed to control the match.

Get Daily Tennis Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven tennis predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel