Dubai U.A.E. Hard Atp 500 Round of 32

Jakub Mensik vs Hubert Hurkacz: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Jakub Mensik

Rank: #13
59%
VS

Hubert Hurkacz

Rank: #73
41%
Expected Total Games: 24.9
Predicted Winner: Jakub Mensik

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Ranking Trends

Jakub Mensik

  • Current #13 2026-02-23
  • 3 mo ago #19 2025-11-24
  • 6 mo ago #16 2025-08-25
  • 9 mo ago #19 2025-05-26
  • 12 mo ago #54 2025-02-24

Hubert Hurkacz

  • Current #73 2026-02-23
  • 3 mo ago #73 2025-11-24
  • 6 mo ago #68 2025-08-25
  • 9 mo ago #28 2025-05-26
  • 12 mo ago #20 2025-02-24

Player Metrics

Jakub Mensik

Form Index: 68.2
ELO Rating: 2133.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1649.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 17.2
Clay: 15.5
Grass: 16.4
Serve Rating: 73.1
Return Rating: 40.7

Hubert Hurkacz

Form Index: 21.9
ELO Rating: 754.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1742.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 8.9
Clay: 9.0
Grass: 6.3
Serve Rating: 98.2
Return Rating: 86.5

Recent Matches

Jakub Mensik
❌ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Arthur Fils (0-2) hard Doha 95 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Jannik Sinner (2-1) hard Doha 131 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Zhizhen Zhang (2-0) hard Doha 66 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Jan Choinski (2-1) hard Doha 138 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Ethan Quinn (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min

Hubert Hurkacz
❌ ❌ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Alexander Bublik (1-2) hard Rotterdam 142 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Martin Damm (0-2) hard Montpellier 92 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Ethan Quinn (0-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Zizou Bergs (3-1) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Roberto Bautista Agut (2-0) grass S Hertogenbosch 98 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Jakub Mensik
vs
1
Hubert Hurkacz
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 1
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This round-of-32 match in Dubai (U.A.E.), played on hard courts at an ATP 500 event, pits 13-ranked Jakub Mensik against 73-ranked Hubert Hurkacz. The model favors Mensik to win (59.50% vs 40.50%) and projects a relatively short meeting of about 24.9 total games.

Match Analysis

Mensik arrives with the stronger metrics: a higher rank (13), a form index of 68.21 and an Elo of 2133.26. His surface strength index (17.16) and mean serve index (73.08) suggest competent play on hard courts with more offensive margin than his opponent. Hurkacz shows lower form (21.88) and a much lower Elo (754.55) and surface index (8.92). Fatigue is 0 for both players, so fresh legs are expected. There is a clear gap in serving and returning indices. Hurkacz’s mean serve index (98.17) exceeds Mensik’s by more than 5 points, and his mean return index (86.51) also sits substantially higher than Mensik’s 40.73; both differences are notable. Over the last three matches Mensik has two wins (including a victory over Jannik Sinner) and one recent loss in Doha, showing competitive form on hard courts. Hurkacz has struggled recently, losing his last three matches (Rotterdam, Montpellier, Australian Open) which is reflected in his low form index. These recent results and the performance indices underpin the model’s preference for Mensik.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.9 Most likely outcome: 24 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Jakub Mensik - Hubert Hurkacz) +1.1 Most likely spread: +1 (Jakub Mensik wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The match’s aces prediction sits at about 13.22 total; the predicted aces skew toward the player with the higher serve index. Expected double faults are modest at 4.4 for the match — an expected double faults figure that suggests limited service-line risk. On medium-paced hard courts, this level of predicted aces is consistent with a surface that rewards big servers but does not inflate ace counts as on faster surfaces.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 13.2 Most likely: 13 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.4 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Mensik’s higher form and Elo give him the edge in this matchup despite Hurkacz’s superior serve and return indices on paper. Watch how Hurkacz’s powerful serving contrasts with Mensik’s current momentum — serve effectiveness versus recent form is the key factor that will decide this match.

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