Vienna Austria Hard Atp 500 Round of 32

Jakub Mensik vs Lukas Neumayer Prediction

Jakub Mensik

Rank: #16
79%
VS

Lukas Neumayer

Rank: #168
21%
Expected Total Games: 26.6
Predicted Winner: Jakub Mensik

Why the Model Favors Jakub Mensik

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent record by level +7.7 Jakub Mensik
Overall strength +5.9 Jakub Mensik
Surface fit +5.6 Jakub Mensik
Serve & return game +5.5 Jakub Mensik
Overall record & opposition quality +4.1 Jakub Mensik

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 79% for Jakub Mensik. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Jakub Mensik

  • Current #16 2026-10-26
  • 3 mo ago #17 2026-07-27
  • 6 mo ago #27 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #17 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #19 2025-10-27

Lukas Neumayer

  • Current #168 2026-10-26
  • 3 mo ago #173 2026-07-27
  • 6 mo ago #195 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #226 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #183 2025-10-27

Player Metrics

Jakub Mensik

Form Index: 41.7
ELO Rating: 1814.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1857.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 37.1
Clay: 39.9
Grass: 18.9
Serve Rating: 96.9
Return Rating: 88.6

Lukas Neumayer

Form Index: 44.9
ELO Rating: 1537.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1567.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 193.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 10.3
Clay: 12.0
Grass: 3.4
Serve Rating: 93.8
Return Rating: 86.9

Recent Matches

Jakub Mensik
❌ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

Lukas Neumayer
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Jakub Mensik
vs
0
Lukas Neumayer
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Jakub Mensik is favoured in Vienna’s Round of 32, with the forecast giving him 79% to Lukas Neumayer’s 21%. It expects 26.6 total games, suggesting a match that may be competitive in length.

Match Analysis

The main separation is Mensik’s stronger overall level and hard-court profile. Ranked 16th to Neumayer’s 168th, he also has the stronger serve-and-return game, a useful combination on this surface. Neumayer has won his two Vienna matches in straight sets, beating Vit Kopriva and Titouan Droguet. But those matches account for 193 minutes on court, while Mensik has no tournament court time recorded, and the forecast still gives Mensik the advantage in recent results by level.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 26.6 Most likely outcome: 26 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Jakub Mensik - Lukas Neumayer) +3.6 Most likely spread: +4 (Jakub Mensik wins 4 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Mensik is projected for 11.3 aces and 2.8 double faults, compared with Neumayer’s 4.4 aces and 2.3 double faults. Mensik’s stronger serve profile supports the clear gap in expected aces, while the hard court offers both players a consistent bounce.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 15.0 Most likely: 13 aces Per player: Jakub Mensik 11.3 + Lukas Neumayer 4.4
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.1 Most likely: 4 double faults Per player: Jakub Mensik 2.8 + Lukas Neumayer 2.3

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Jakub Mensik

Expected 11.3 aces

Lukas Neumayer

Expected 4.4 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Jakub Mensik

Expected 2.8 double faults

Lukas Neumayer

Expected 2.3 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

45.5% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Jakub Mensik's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (50.1%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Neumayer’s two straight-set wins are a reason not to dismiss his chances, but he will need to maintain that level against a higher-ranked opponent with the stronger hard-court game. A dip from Mensik, who is coming off a loss to Arthur Gea, would give Neumayer an opening to challenge the forecast.

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