Los Cabos Mexico Hard Atp 250 Round of 16

James Duckworth vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Prediction

James Duckworth

Rank: #103
33%
VS

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Rank: #27
67%
Expected Total Games: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

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Ranking Trends

James Duckworth

  • Current #103 2025-06-30
  • 3 mo ago #92 2025-04-14
  • 6 mo ago #89 2025-01-13
  • 9 mo ago #63 2024-10-14
  • 12 mo ago #78 2024-07-15

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

  • Current #27 2025-06-30
  • 3 mo ago #30 2025-04-14
  • 6 mo ago #66 2025-01-13
  • 9 mo ago #64 2024-10-14
  • 12 mo ago #41 2024-07-15

Player Metrics

James Duckworth

Form Index: 40.6
ELO Rating: 516.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1551.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 90.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 4.8
Clay: 4.1
Grass: 5.6
Serve Rating: 97.8
Return Rating: 84.0

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Form Index: 68.6
ELO Rating: 1435.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1690.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 10.6
Clay: 10.2
Grass: 7.4
Serve Rating: 94.6
Return Rating: 86.8

Recent Matches

James Duckworth
✅ ❌ ❌ ✅ ✅

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
❌ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Taylor Fritz (1-3) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Botic van de Zandschulp (3-1) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Brandon Holt (3-0) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Taylor Fritz (1-2) grass Eastbourne 93 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Jakub Mensik (2-0) grass Eastbourne 104 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
James Duckworth
vs
1
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 1

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 16 at the Los Cabos tournament in Mexico, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina is set to face James Duckworth on hard court. The prediction leans in favor of Davidovich Fokina, with a win probability of 66.81% compared to Duckworth's 33.19%. The match is anticipated to be competitive, with a predicted total of 23 games played.

Match Analysis

James Duckworth, currently ranked 103, holds a form index of 40.58, indicating he has struggled recently. His Elo rating stands at 516.24, and he has a notable fatigue level of 90 minutes from prior matches, which could impact his performance. Duckworth's surface strength index is 4.83, and he boasts a mean serve index of 97.76, which is impressive. However, his mean return index of 84.03 suggests that while he serves well, he may struggle to capitalize on his return game against higher-ranked opponents. In contrast, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, ranked 27, has a solid form index of 68.59 and a significantly higher Elo rating of 1435.17. He enters this match with no accumulated fatigue, granting him a physical advantage. His surface strength index is considerably higher at 10.62, coupled with a mean serve index of 94.59 and a mean return index of 86.79. The difference of 5.73 points in the return index favors Davidovich Fokina, as he is more adept at breaking serves compared to Duckworth.

Final Prediction

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina's higher ranking, better form, and lack of fatigue provide him with a distinct edge over James Duckworth. The key factor to watch will be how well Duckworth can leverage his powerful serve against a player with superior return capabilities, as this could determine the match's outcome.

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