Quinn Vandecasteele vs James Duckworth: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model’s edge for Duckworth comes mainly from overall strength (+10.4 percentage points), recent form (+6.6), recent record by level (+3.9), and surface fit (+3.6). Age is the only factor nudging toward Vandecasteele (+3.9). Those signals line up with the raw numbers. Duckworth sits well inside the top 100 at rank 86 and carries a slightly higher Elo at 1558.6 versus Vandecasteele’s Elo of 1532.1 and rank 483. Duckworth’s surface strength index on hard courts reads 16.05 compared with Vandecasteele’s 12.67, supporting the surface fit advantage noted by the model. Fatigue is also relevant: Vandecasteele arrives with 217 minutes on court in this event, while Duckworth shows zero tournament minutes logged. Serve and return profiles are instructive. Mean serve indices are nearly identical, 96.15 for Vandecasteele and 95.77 for Duckworth, so no large serve gap is expected. The mean return index, however, favors Vandecasteele by about 9.66 points (94.20 versus 84.54), which explains why he can trouble opponents despite the ranking gap. Recent form summaries mirror the model weights. Vandecasteele has won his two matches at Winston-Salem, including a 150-minute three setter over Pierre-Hugues Herbert and a straight sets victory over Li Tu. Duckworth’s recent stretch shows higher-level matches: a win over J.J. Wolf and losses to Arthur Fery and Alex de Minaur, a pattern that gives him the edge in quality of opposition and match experience.