S Hertogenbosch Netherlands Grass Atp 250 Round of 32

James McCabe vs Zizou Bergs: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

James McCabe

Rank: #233
26%
VS

Zizou Bergs

Rank: #40
74%
Expected Total Games: 29.9
Predicted Winner: Zizou Bergs

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Ranking Trends

James McCabe

  • Current #233 2026-06-08
  • 3 mo ago #231 2026-03-02
  • 6 mo ago #189 2025-12-08
  • 9 mo ago #178 2025-09-08
  • 12 mo ago #180 2025-06-09

Zizou Bergs

  • Current #40 2026-06-08
  • 3 mo ago #47 2026-03-02
  • 6 mo ago #43 2025-12-08
  • 9 mo ago #46 2025-09-08
  • 12 mo ago #63 2025-06-09

Player Metrics

James McCabe

Form Index: 26.0
ELO Rating: 1527.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1512.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 89.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 7.7
Clay: 7.8
Grass: 7.4
Serve Rating: 94.0
Return Rating: 90.0

Zizou Bergs

Form Index: 26.5
ELO Rating: 1557.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1582.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 21.9
Clay: 9.5
Grass: 10.9
Serve Rating: 95.6
Return Rating: 88.6

Recent Matches

James McCabe
✅ ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Sander Jong (2-0) grass S Hertogenbosch 89 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Jan Choinski (0-2) hard Doha 83 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer (1-2) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Pavle Marinkov (2-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Tristan Schoolkate (1-2) hard Shanghai 145 min

Zizou Bergs
❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Tomas Machac (0-3) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Terence Atmane (0-2) clay Rome 83 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Marin Cilic (1-2) clay Madrid 127 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Flavio Cobolli (0-2) clay Munich 73 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Marko Topo (2-0) clay Munich 69 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
James McCabe
vs
0
Zizou Bergs
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At s_hertogenbosch in the Netherlands, Round of 32 on grass at a 250-level event, Zizou Bergs is the clear favorite against James McCabe. The model projects Bergs to win with a 73.71% probability to McCabe’s 26.29%, and anticipates around 29.9 total games in the match.

Match Analysis

Bergs enters the match as the higher-ranked player (No. 40) with an Elo of 1557.7, while McCabe sits at No. 233 with an Elo of 1519.1. Both players show comparable recent form indices (McCabe 26.02, Bergs 26.54), but Bergs brings the freshness advantage — he has no minutes logged in this event, whereas McCabe carries 89 minutes of court time here. On grass, Bergs has a slightly higher surface strength index (10.94 vs 7.44) and a marginally better mean serve index (95.60 vs 94.02), suggesting a small edge in serving potency and comfort on low, fast bounces. McCabe’s recent results include a straight-sets win at this very event over Sander Jong, offset by two earlier losses on hard courts. Bergs’ last three matches were defeats on clay (to Machac, Atmane and Cilic), but those losses do not negate his superior ranking and Elo. Both players carry strong serving metrics and solid return numbers, so holds are likely to be a central theme; McCabe’s return index (90.01) is slightly higher than Bergs’ (88.61), indicating he can be dangerous on return games despite the rank gap.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 29.9 Most likely outcome: 30 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (James McCabe - Zizou Bergs) -2.3 Most likely spread: -3 (Zizou Bergs wins 3 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

This is an aces-friendly matchup on grass: the aces prediction sits at about 15.08 total, and the predicted aces are likely shared given both players’ high serve indices. The double faults prediction is moderate — expected double faults around 6.53 for the match — reflecting aggressive serving on a fast surface. If either player leans more on first-serve aggression, that could lift the ace count further.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 15.0 Most likely: 15 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.6 Most likely: 6 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

35.7% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (James McCabe's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (57.4%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Bergs’ higher rank, superior Elo and lack of tournament fatigue give him the measurable edge on paper. The key factor to watch will be serve efficiency on grass — how often Bergs can convert free points with his serve and whether McCabe’s returns can generate early breaks.

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