Rotterdam Netherlands Hard Atp 500 Round of 16

Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Jan-Lennard Struff

Rank: #84
20%
VS

Alexander Bublik

Rank: #10
80%
Expected Total Games: 23.5
Predicted Winner: Alexander Bublik

Also available in Claude. Query these predictions in plain language — our native connector lets Claude call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Ranking Trends

Jan-Lennard Struff

  • Current #84 2026-02-02
  • 3 mo ago #100 2025-11-10
  • 6 mo ago #143 2025-08-04
  • 9 mo ago #87 2025-05-05
  • 12 mo ago #46 2025-02-10

Alexander Bublik

  • Current #10 2026-02-02
  • 3 mo ago #11 2025-11-10
  • 6 mo ago #27 2025-08-04
  • 9 mo ago #76 2025-05-05
  • 12 mo ago #48 2025-02-10

Player Metrics

Jan-Lennard Struff

Form Index: 38.5
ELO Rating: 655.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1618.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 64.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 5.7
Clay: 4.9
Grass: 6.7
Serve Rating: 67.1
Return Rating: 49.4

Alexander Bublik

Form Index: 78.1
ELO Rating: 2972.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1665.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 142.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 19.8
Clay: 23.7
Grass: 24.8
Serve Rating: 98.0
Return Rating: 87.7

Recent Matches

Jan-Lennard Struff
✅ ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Hugo Grenier (1-0) hard Rotterdam 64 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Vit Kopriva (2-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Emilio Nava (1-2) hard Auckland 101 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Anton Shepp (2-0) hard Auckland 74 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Botic van de Zandschulp (1-2) hard Hong Kong 94 min

Alexander Bublik
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Hubert Hurkacz (2-1) hard Rotterdam 142 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Alex de Minaur (0-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Marton Fucsovics (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Jenson Brooksby (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Jan-Lennard Struff
vs
0
Alexander Bublik
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This round-of-16 match in Rotterdam (Netherlands) on indoor hard courts at an ATP 500-level event pits Jan-Lennard Struff against Alexander Bublik. The model strongly favors Bublik — predicted winner Alexander Bublik (79.79%) over Jan-Lennard Struff (20.21%) with an expected total of about 23.5 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Bublik enters this tie with clear statistical advantages: a top-10 ranking versus Struff’s 84, an Elo rating of 2972.6 compared with 655.5 for Struff, and a much higher form index (78.15 vs 38.46). Surface strength indices also favor Bublik (19.84 vs 5.71). Fatigue data show Bublik has accumulated 142 minutes in the event so far versus Struff’s 64 minutes, which is a factor to monitor given match length projections. Serve and return metrics point to a decisive edge for Bublik. His mean serve index (97.98) exceeds Struff’s (67.07) by over 30 points, and his mean return index (87.70) is roughly 38 points higher — both differences well beyond the 5-point threshold and likely to shape the contest. Recent form: Struff has 1 win and 2 losses in his last three matches (including a 64-minute Rotterdam win), while Bublik has two wins and one loss over his last three, including a 142-minute Rotterdam victory. Those recent results reflect Bublik’s stronger overall trajectory coming into this round.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.5 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Jan-Lennard Struff - Alexander Bublik) +0.3 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is about 16.86 total, with an expected double faults total near 5.74. On a medium-paced hard court, predicted aces should be moderate — harder than clay but typically fewer than grass — and Bublik’s far superior serve rating suggests he will contribute a large share of the predicted aces. The double faults prediction reflects some risk from aggressive serving combined with the match’s expected short length.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 16.9 Most likely: 16 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.7 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Bublik’s superior serve and return profiles, higher Elo and stronger recent form give him the clear edge in this matchup. A key factor to watch is Bublik’s serve efficiency and how often Struff can convert return opportunities early in games.

Get Daily Tennis Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven tennis predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel