Mallorca Spain Grass Atp 250 Round of 32

Jan-Lennard Struff vs Martin Landaluce: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Jan-Lennard Struff

Rank: #77
44%
VS

Martin Landaluce

Rank: #55
56%
Expected Total Games: 25.1
Predicted Winner: Martin Landaluce

Why the Model Favors Martin Landaluce

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Age +5.0 Martin Landaluce
Recent form +4.5 Jan-Lennard Struff
Serve & return game +2.6 Jan-Lennard Struff
Overall strength +2.5 Martin Landaluce
Recent record by level +2.0 Martin Landaluce

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 56% for Martin Landaluce. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network — not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Player Metrics

Jan-Lennard Struff

Form Index: 36.8
ELO Rating: 1555.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1563.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 15.7
Clay: 16.7
Grass: 19.4
Serve Rating: 96.6
Return Rating: 91.1

Martin Landaluce

Form Index: 50.7
ELO Rating: 1719.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1753.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 27.6
Clay: 20.2
Grass: 12.3
Serve Rating: 95.0
Return Rating: 86.7

Recent Matches

Jan-Lennard Struff

Martin Landaluce

  • Last Match: vs Terence Atmane (1-2) grass Halle 138 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Tom Gentzsch (2-0) grass Halle 90 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Marc-Andrea Huesler (2-1) grass Halle 128 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Taylor Fritz (1-2) grass Stuttgart 151 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Pierre-Hugues Herbert (2-1) grass Stuttgart 138 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Jan-Lennard Struff
vs
0
Martin Landaluce
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Mallorca, Spain — Round of 32 on grass at an ATP 250 event produces an intriguing contrast: veteran Jan-Lennard Struff versus the younger Martin Landaluce. The model favors Landaluce to win (55.63%) over Struff (44.37%), with a projected 25.14 total games in the match — suggesting a straight sets outcome is slightly more likely than a long three-setter.

Match Analysis

The model’s edge for Landaluce is driven primarily by age and overall strength, while Struff’s recent form and serve/return profile narrow the gap. On paper Landaluce arrives with the higher ranking (55 vs 77) and a substantially higher Elo (1719.45 vs 1555.59), which the model counts as overall strength in his favor. Both players show zero tournament fatigue, so freshness won’t be a differentiator here. Struff counters with notable recent performances on grass that earned him model credit: his win over Alexis Galarneau and competitive showing against Alexander Bublik point to form that the engine rewarded, even if his proprietary form index (36.79) sits below Landaluce’s (50.72). Serve numbers are strong on both sides — mean serve indices of 96.6 (Struff) and 95.0 (Landaluce) — and their return indices (91.1 vs 86.7) keep Struff slightly better on return metrics, though neither difference exceeds the model’s significance thresholds. Looking at recent matches, Struff is 1-2 across his last three (grass wins and losses included), while Landaluce is 2-1 with two straight grass wins prior to a tight loss at Halle.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 25.1 Most likely outcome: 25 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Jan-Lennard Struff versus Martin Landaluce. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Jan-Lennard Struff versus Martin Landaluce. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Jan-Lennard Struff - Martin Landaluce) -1.8 Most likely spread: -2 (Martin Landaluce wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Jan-Lennard Struff versus Martin Landaluce. Positive values indicate Jan-Lennard Struff winning more games, negative values indicate Martin Landaluce winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Jan-Lennard Struff versus Martin Landaluce. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Aces prediction for this match is 17.65 (predicted aces) with an expected double faults total of 8.95 (double faults prediction). Grass typically boosts ace counts and favors big servers, and both players carry very high serve indices, so the predicted aces tally reflects that surface effect. Neither player has a significantly higher serve rating, meaning the ace count should be shared rather than dominated by one man.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 17.6 Most likely: 17 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 8.9 Most likely: 8 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Jan-Lennard Struff versus Martin Landaluce. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Jan-Lennard Struff versus Martin Landaluce. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Jan-Lennard Struff versus Martin Landaluce. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Jan-Lennard Struff versus Martin Landaluce. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

44.8% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Jan-Lennard Struff's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (31.6%)
Probability distribution of the final set score from Jan-Lennard Struff's perspective. Format: BO3.

Final Prediction

Landaluce’s edge stems chiefly from age and underlying strength metrics (Elo/rank), with Struff’s recent grass form and balanced serve/return game keeping the contest close. The key factor to watch: which player can convert their strong serving into free points early — that will likely decide the match.

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