Jenson Brooksby vs Aleksandar Vukic: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model’s edge for Brooksby comes largely from surface fit and recent form at comparable levels: surface fit contributes +7.7 percentage points and recent results by level add another +7.0 in his favour. Those factors combine with a head-to-head tilt (+6.9) to produce the overall prediction. Brooksby (rank 67) carries a slightly higher Elo (1488.7) than Vukic (1478.0) and arrives with zero minutes of fatigue in this event versus Vukic’s 248 minutes accumulated on court, a non-trivial physical differential. Both players have nearly identical surface strength indices (Brooksby 15.87, Vukic 16.07), so raw grass comfort looks even on paper. Serve metrics are closely matched — mean serve indices are essentially the same (95.93 vs 95.82), so no large serving advantage is expected. Where Brooksby shines is his return game: his mean return index (94.58) is substantially higher than Vukic’s (83.78), a gap greater than five points and a clear tactical edge on a fast surface. Recent form is mixed: Brooksby has split his last three grass matches (a win over Martin Damm, losses to Cerúndolo and Zhang), while Vukic has won his two Eastbourne qualifiers/matches but arrived after a long 149-minute win and earlier loss in London — that workload feeds into his fatigue number. The model still assigns a modest +4.1 percentage points toward Vukic for serve & return nuances and gives Brooksby a small age-related boost (+2.6).