Bastad Sweden Clay Atp 250 Semifinals

Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Jesper de Jong Prediction

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Rank: #56
48%
VS

Jesper de Jong

Rank: #106
52%
Predicted Games Played: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Jesper de Jong

Player Metrics

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Form Index: 45.5
ELO Rating: 797.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1569.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 389.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 5.5
Clay: 6.9
Grass: 4.2
Serve Rating: 96.5
Return Rating: 89.0

Jesper de Jong

Form Index: 57.5
ELO Rating: 814.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1573.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 389.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 5.9
Clay: 7.5
Grass: 4.4
Serve Rating: 95.5
Return Rating: 86.9

Recent Matches

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

  • Last Match: vs Filip Misolic (2-0) clay Bastad 96 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Botic van de Zandschulp (2-1) clay Bastad 170 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Cristian Garin (2-0) clay Bastad 123 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Marcos Giron (0-3) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Ethan Quinn (0-2) grass Mallorca 66 min

Jesper de Jong

  • Last Match: vs Tallon Griekspoor (2-1) clay Bastad 160 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Vit Kopriva (2-0) clay Bastad 147 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs William Rejchtman Vinciguerra (2-0) clay Bastad 82 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Miomir Kecmanovic (1-3) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Christopher Eubanks (3-2) grass Wimbledon 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
vs
1
Jesper de Jong
Hard
0 - 1
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The semifinals of the ATP 250 tournament in Båstad, Sweden, sees Camilo Ugo Carabelli face off against Jesper de Jong on the clay surface. The predicted winner is Jesper de Jong, with a probability of winning set at 52.37%, while Camilo Ugo Carabelli stands at 47.63%. The anticipated total number of games played in this encounter is 23.0.

Match Analysis

Camilo Ugo Carabelli holds a rank of 56 and has a form index of 45.51, compared to Jesper de Jong's rank of 106 and a higher form index of 57.52. In terms of Elo ratings, Carabelli is at 797.72, slightly behind De Jong's 814.05, indicating a marginally better performance history for the latter. Both players have accumulated the same amount of fatigue (389 minutes), but De Jong boasts a superior surface strength index of 7.52 against Carabelli’s 6.86. The difference in their mean serve indices is minimal, with Carabelli at 96.50 and De Jong at 95.49, while the return index shows a notable difference, with Carabelli at 89.02 and De Jong at 86.86, suggesting that Carabelli may have the edge when returning serve. Recent performances illustrate that Carabelli has been in strong form, winning all three of his last matches in straight sets against Cristian Garin, Botic van de Zandschulp, and Filip Misolic. Jesper de Jong has also been impressive, winning his last three matches against William Rejchtman Vinciguerra, Vit Kopriva, and Tallon Griekspoor, including a tougher three-set battle against the latter. Both players have shown resilience, but Carabelli's consistency in recent matches could be a critical factor.

Final Prediction

Jesper de Jong's slight edge in the overall statistics and his recent match experience may provide him with the necessary advantage to secure victory. A key factor to observe will be how well Carabelli can leverage his stronger return capabilities against De Jong’s serve, which could dictate the flow of the match.