Umag Croatia Clay Atp 250 Round of 16

Jesper de Jong vs Mariano Navone Prediction

Jesper de Jong

Rank: #106
51%
VS

Mariano Navone

Rank: #75
49%
Expected Total Games: 22.0
Predicted Winner: Jesper de Jong

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Ranking Trends

Jesper de Jong

  • Current #106 2025-07-14
  • 3 mo ago #93 2025-04-21
  • 6 mo ago #111 2025-01-13
  • 9 mo ago #109 2024-10-21
  • 12 mo ago #112 2024-07-22

Mariano Navone

  • Current #75 2025-07-14
  • 3 mo ago #85 2025-04-21
  • 6 mo ago #47 2025-01-13
  • 9 mo ago #44 2024-10-21
  • 12 mo ago #36 2024-07-22

Player Metrics

Jesper de Jong

Form Index: 61.0
ELO Rating: 834.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1584.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 83.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 5.9
Clay: 7.6
Grass: 4.2
Serve Rating: 97.0
Return Rating: 87.1

Mariano Navone

Form Index: 51.9
ELO Rating: 1123.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1583.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 70.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 7.9
Clay: 10.5
Grass: 8.7
Serve Rating: 94.7
Return Rating: 90.2

Recent Matches

Jesper de Jong
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Mili Poljicak (2-0) clay Umag 83 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli (2-0) clay Bastad 112 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Tallon Griekspoor (2-1) clay Bastad 160 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Vit Kopriva (2-0) clay Bastad 147 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs William Rejchtman Vinciguerra (2-0) clay Bastad 82 min

Mariano Navone
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Jesper de Jong
vs
0
Mariano Navone
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The Round of 16 clash at the Umag tournament in Croatia features Jesper de Jong and Mariano Navone, both competing on clay in this ATP 250 event. The match is poised to be a closely contested affair, with de Jong slightly favored to win at a probability of 51.02%, while Navone sits at 48.98%. The predicted total number of games played is set at 22.

Match Analysis

Jesper de Jong, currently ranked 106, enters this match with a form index of 60.98 and an Elo rating of 834.80. His cumulative fatigue from the current tournament stands at 83 minutes, indicating a greater time spent on court compared to Navone. De Jong showcases a surface strength index of 7.65, which is lower than Navone's impressive 10.50. Notably, de Jong boasts a mean serve index of 96.99, surpassing Navone's 94.70 by more than 5 points, while Navone has a slight edge in return capabilities with a mean return index of 90.21 compared to de Jong's 87.10. Mariano Navone, ranked 75, has a form index of 51.87 and a higher Elo rating of 1123.89. His fatigue level is lower at 70 minutes, which may provide him an advantage in stamina. Analyzing their recent performances, de Jong has won all three of his last matches, demonstrating a strong run of form, especially with two straight-set victories in Umag and Bastad. In contrast, Navone's recent results include a mixed bag, with two wins and one loss, indicating inconsistency.

Final Prediction

Jesper de Jong's recent form and stronger serve give him a slight edge in this matchup, despite both players' strengths on clay. The key factor to watch will be how effectively de Jong can leverage his serve against Navone's return game, potentially dictating the flow of the match.

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