Umag Croatia Clay Atp 250 Round of 32

Jesper de Jong vs Mili Poljicak Prediction

Jesper de Jong

Rank: #106
74%
VS

Mili Poljicak

Rank: #274
26%
Expected Total Games: 22.0
Predicted Winner: Jesper de Jong

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Ranking Trends

Jesper de Jong

  • Current #106 2025-07-14
  • 3 mo ago #93 2025-04-21
  • 6 mo ago #111 2025-01-13
  • 9 mo ago #109 2024-10-21
  • 12 mo ago #112 2024-07-22

Mili Poljicak

  • Current #274 2025-07-14
  • 3 mo ago #268 2025-04-21
  • 6 mo ago #300 2025-01-13
  • 9 mo ago #296 2024-10-21
  • 12 mo ago #481 2024-07-22

Player Metrics

Jesper de Jong

Form Index: 60.0
ELO Rating: 833.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1579.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 5.9
Clay: 7.6
Grass: 4.2
Serve Rating: 96.9
Return Rating: 87.0

Mili Poljicak

Form Index: 22.9
ELO Rating: 175.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1503.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 1.6
Clay: 1.6
Grass: 1.7
Serve Rating: 98.3
Return Rating: 88.0

Recent Matches

Jesper de Jong
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli (2-0) clay Bastad 112 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Tallon Griekspoor (2-1) clay Bastad 160 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Vit Kopriva (2-0) clay Bastad 147 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs William Rejchtman Vinciguerra (2-0) clay Bastad 82 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Miomir Kecmanovic (1-3) grass Wimbledon 174 min

Mili Poljicak
❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Lorenzo Sonego (1-2) clay Umag 196 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs None (0-0) None None 0 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs None (0-0) None None 0 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs None (0-0) None None 0 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs None (0-0) None None 0 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Jesper de Jong
vs
0
Mili Poljicak
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 32 at the Umag tournament in Croatia, Jesper de Jong is set to face Mili Poljicak on clay. With a strong probability of winning at 74.38%, de Jong is favored to take the match against Poljicak, who holds a 25.62% chance of victory. The predicted total number of games played is 22.0.

Match Analysis

Jesper de Jong, currently ranked 106, has a solid form index of 60.02 and an Elo rating of 833.87, indicating his competitive edge in this matchup. He is not fatigued, having spent no minutes on court in the current tournament, and boasts a surface strength index of 7.64, which is significantly higher than Poljicak's 1.55. De Jong's mean serve index of 96.94 surpasses Poljicak's 98.32 by a narrow margin, while his mean return index of 87.04 is closely matched against Poljicak's 88.04, keeping the contest competitive in terms of returns. In contrast, Mili Poljicak, ranked 274, displays a form index of 22.89 and a low Elo rating of 175, suggesting he has struggled recently. His last match ended in a loss to Lorenzo Sonego, where he only managed to win one set, highlighting his current challenges on the court. With no recent matches played prior to this tournament, Poljicak's lack of match practice could hinder his performance against a more seasoned opponent like de Jong.

Final Prediction

Jesper de Jong's combination of recent form, higher ranking, and superior surface strength gives him a distinct advantage in this matchup against Mili Poljicak. A key factor to watch will be de Jong's ability to capitalize on his serve, given that even a small edge in serving can significantly impact the outcome on clay.

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