Jesper de Jong vs Vilius Gaubas: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model’s edge for de Jong comes mainly from recent form, surface fit and recent record at this level—all pushing the probability toward him. De Jong’s rank (73), higher Elo (1679.2) and a surface strength index of 25.12 suggest a better baseline comfort on clay than Gaubas, whose surface index sits at 16.76. Form indices are close (de Jong 44.97, Gaubas 46.96), but the model weighted de Jong’s recent results at comparable events and clay performance more heavily. Neither player shows tournament fatigue (0 minutes on court), so freshness should not be a factor. On serve and return metrics the edge slightly tilts to Gaubas in one model driver, but the raw numbers tell a different story: de Jong’s mean serve index (95.79) and Gaubas’s (94.81) are almost identical, while de Jong holds a clear advantage in mean return (92.90 vs 87.69)—a difference greater than five points that matters on clay. Recent matches reinforce this: de Jong has a big-court loss to Zverev at Roland Garros, a solid win over Rinky Hijikata, then a loss at Wimbledon; Gaubas arrived with two grass-court wins before a recent defeat. Both players show streaky form, but de Jong’s clay credentials and higher ranking tilt the balance.