Tokio Japan Hard Atp 500 Quarterfinals

Jiri Lehecka vs Adolfo Daniel Vallejo Prediction

Jiri Lehecka

Rank: #23
67%
VS

Adolfo Daniel Vallejo

Rank: #56
33%
Expected Total Games: 23.9
Predicted Winner: Jiri Lehecka

Why the Model Favors Jiri Lehecka

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Surface fit +5.6 Jiri Lehecka
Recent record by level +5.3 Jiri Lehecka
Overall strength +5.0 Jiri Lehecka
Serve & return game +2.2 Jiri Lehecka
Age +1.1 Adolfo Daniel Vallejo

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 67% for Jiri Lehecka. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Jiri Lehecka

  • Current #23 2026-09-28
  • 3 mo ago #14 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #14 2026-03-30
  • 9 mo ago #18 2025-12-29
  • 12 mo ago #19 2025-09-29

Adolfo Daniel Vallejo

  • Current #56 2026-09-28
  • 3 mo ago #72 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #101 2026-03-30
  • 9 mo ago #144 2025-12-29
  • 12 mo ago #268 2025-09-29

Player Metrics

Jiri Lehecka

Form Index: 52.1
ELO Rating: 1839.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1849.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 342.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 38.1
Clay: 28.5
Grass: 29.0
Serve Rating: 97.5
Return Rating: 87.8

Adolfo Daniel Vallejo

Form Index: 54.5
ELO Rating: 1671.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1732.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 419.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 23.1
Clay: 18.4
Grass: 4.8
Serve Rating: 94.7
Return Rating: 89.4

Recent Matches

Jiri Lehecka
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Jiri Lehecka
vs
0
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Lehecka is favored, with a 67% win probability to Vallejo’s 33%. The expected total is 23.9 games.

Match Analysis

Lehecka’s hard-court game is the main separation: he has a clear surface-fit advantage and a stronger overall profile, reflected in his No. 23 ranking against Vallejo at No. 56. His stronger serve should also help him protect his service games. Vallejo’s recent run is a counterweight, with three straight wins in Tokyo, capped by a straight-sets victory over Matteo Berrettini. Lehecka has won his last two matches here, against Zizou Bergs and Ugo Humbert, though both went three sets. Vallejo has spent 77 more minutes on court during the tournament.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.9 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Jiri Lehecka - Adolfo Daniel Vallejo) +1.7 Most likely spread: +1 (Jiri Lehecka wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Lehecka is projected for 7.2 aces and 2.0 double faults, compared with 3.6 aces and 2.2 double faults for Vallejo. Lehecka’s stronger serve helps explain the projected ace gap, while Vallejo has a marginally higher expected double-fault count.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.7 Most likely: 8 aces Per player: Jiri Lehecka 7.2 + Adolfo Daniel Vallejo 3.6
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.2 Most likely: 3 double faults Per player: Jiri Lehecka 2.0 + Adolfo Daniel Vallejo 2.2

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Jiri Lehecka

Expected 7.2 aces

Adolfo Daniel Vallejo

Expected 3.6 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Jiri Lehecka

Expected 2.0 double faults

Adolfo Daniel Vallejo

Expected 2.2 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

38.1% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Jiri Lehecka's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (41.0%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Vallejo’s slightly stronger returning could trouble Lehecka’s serve and is the specific matchup strength most capable of changing the forecast.

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