Doha Qatar Hard Atp 500 Round of 16

Jiri Lehecka vs Zizou Bergs: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Jiri Lehecka

Rank: #21
68%
VS

Zizou Bergs

Rank: #39
32%
Expected Total Games: 23.1
Predicted Winner: Jiri Lehecka

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Player Metrics

Jiri Lehecka

Form Index: 37.2
ELO Rating: 1859.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1687.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 82.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 11.3
Clay: 15.8
Grass: 18.2
Serve Rating: 81.4
Return Rating: 43.3

Zizou Bergs

Form Index: 35.9
ELO Rating: 1065.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1577.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 135.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 9.5
Clay: 10.0
Grass: 9.3
Serve Rating: 98.2
Return Rating: 92.6

Recent Matches

Jiri Lehecka

  • Last Match: vs Jenson Brooksby (2-0) hard Doha 82 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Arthur Gea (0-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Sebastian Korda (1-1) hard Brisbane 46 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Tomas Machac (2-1) hard Brisbane 144 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Botic van de Zandschulp (0-2) hard Basel 83 min

Zizou Bergs

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Jiri Lehecka
vs
0
Zizou Bergs
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This round of 16 match in Doha (hard court, 500-level) features Jiri Lehecka against Zizou Bergs. The model favors Lehecka to win (68.07% vs 31.93%) with a predicted total of 23.07 games, suggesting a straight-sets finish is the most likely outcome.

Match Analysis

Lehecka arrives as the higher-ranked player (No. 21) with a substantially higher Elo (≈1859 vs 1066) and a stronger recent form index (37.18 vs 35.92). His mean serve index (81.45) is solid and his surface strength index is modest (11.29). Fatigue-wise Lehecka has 82 minutes on court in this event. Bergs (rank 39) posts an excellent mean serve index (98.21) and a very strong mean return index (92.58); both figures exceed Lehecka’s by more than 5 points, a notable contrast. Bergs carries heavier tournament fatigue (135 minutes) and a slightly lower surface strength index (9.54). Recent match form is mixed for both. Lehecka has one clear win in Doha over Jenson Brooksby (82 minutes) but suffered longer losses at the Australian Open (174 minutes) and an earlier hard-court exit in Brisbane. Bergs also won his Doha opener (135 minutes) but lost preceding matches in Rotterdam and the Australian Open, with both losses being extended affairs that contribute to his higher cumulative fatigue. Overall, Lehecka’s higher Elo and cleaner recent result in Doha tilt the matchup in his favor despite Bergs’ powerful serving and returning metrics.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.1 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Jiri Lehecka versus Zizou Bergs. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Jiri Lehecka versus Zizou Bergs. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Jiri Lehecka - Zizou Bergs) +0.3 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Jiri Lehecka versus Zizou Bergs. Positive values indicate Jiri Lehecka winning more games, negative values indicate Zizou Bergs winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Jiri Lehecka versus Zizou Bergs. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match sits at 16.86 total; predicted aces are likely boosted by Bergs’ significantly higher serve rating. Expected double faults are 5.74 in the match, reflecting some risk on serve under pressure. On a medium-paced hard court, this level of aces and expected double faults is consistent with balanced conditions that reward both big servers and solid returners.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 16.9 Most likely: 16 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 5.7 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Jiri Lehecka versus Zizou Bergs. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Jiri Lehecka versus Zizou Bergs. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Jiri Lehecka versus Zizou Bergs. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Jiri Lehecka versus Zizou Bergs. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

Final Prediction

Lehecka’s edge comes from his superior Elo, higher ranking and fresher legs in the event, which the model quantifies into the 68% probability. Key factor to watch: how effectively Bergs can convert his high serve and return indices into free points before fatigue influences his timing.

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