Roberto Bautista Agut vs Joao Fonseca: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model's edge for Fonseca comes mainly from overall strength, age and surface fit. Overall strength alone shifts the forecast 7.1 percentage points toward Fonseca; that aligns with his substantially higher Elo (1838.9 vs 1478.4) and current world rank (27 vs 183). Age contributed another 6.7 points in Fonseca’s favor in the model’s calculations, indicating an age-related advantage factored into the prediction. Surface fit adds 5.7 points toward Fonseca, consistent with his higher surface strength index on grass (17.89 vs Bautista Agut’s 10.11). Both players show solid serving profiles: mean serve indices are close (Fonseca 96.44, Bautista Agut 95.93), so serve power alone is not a decisive gap. Bautista Agut retains a marginal edge in return metrics (mean return 90.57 vs Fonseca 87.62), and that small advantage nudges 2.3 points toward him in the model. Fatigue is neutral for both (0.0 minutes on court). Form indices favor Fonseca (47.47 vs 29.08), while recent match patterns show mixed results: Bautista Agut has one win among his last three (beat Benito Sanchez Martinez) and two defeats (losses at Halle and Stuttgart), whereas Fonseca has one notable win (Casper Ruud at Roland Garros) but also two recent losses (Halle and Roland Garros).