S Hertogenbosch Netherlands Grass Atp 250 Round of 32

Jordan Thompson vs Aleksandar Kovacevic Prediction

Jordan Thompson

Rank: #37
52%
VS

Aleksandar Kovacevic

Rank: #76
48%
Expected Total Games: 24.0
Predicted Winner: Jordan Thompson

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Ranking Trends

Jordan Thompson

  • Current #37 2025-06-09
  • 3 mo ago #38 2025-03-03
  • 6 mo ago #26 2024-12-09
  • 9 mo ago #29 2024-09-09
  • 12 mo ago #37 2024-06-10

Aleksandar Kovacevic

  • Current #76 2025-06-09
  • 3 mo ago #94 2025-03-03
  • 6 mo ago #111 2024-12-09
  • 9 mo ago #73 2024-09-09
  • 12 mo ago #83 2024-06-10

Player Metrics

Jordan Thompson

Form Index: 28.1
ELO Rating: 1519.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1592.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 15.2
Clay: 11.7
Grass: 14.9
Serve Rating: 97.8
Return Rating: 87.2

Aleksandar Kovacevic

Form Index: 30.0
ELO Rating: 604.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1560.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 7.4
Clay: 4.4
Grass: 5.0
Serve Rating: 96.5
Return Rating: 85.5

Recent Matches

Jordan Thompson
❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

Aleksandar Kovacevic
❌ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Jordan Thompson
vs
1
Aleksandar Kovacevic
Hard
0 - 1
Clay
1 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming match between Jordan Thompson and Aleksandar Kovacevic at the s-Hertogenbosch tournament marks an intriguing clash in the Round of 32 on grass, an important surface for both players as they prepare for the grass-court season. The predicted winner is Jordan Thompson, with a win probability of 52.06%, while Aleksandar Kovacevic has a slightly lower probability at 47.94%. The match is expected to be competitive, with a predicted total of 24 games played.

Match Analysis

Jordan Thompson, currently ranked 37, brings a solid form index of 28.10 and an Elo rating of approximately 1519.77 to this match. His mean serve index of 97.77 indicates a strong serving capability, especially when compared to Kovacevic's mean serve index of 96.50, which is within a 5-point margin. However, Thompson's mean return index of 87.24 is notably higher than Kovacevic's 85.49, giving him an edge in returning serves. Neither player shows signs of fatigue, as both have a cumulative fatigue of 0.0 minutes from this tournament. In their recent performances, Thompson has struggled on clay, losing both of his last two matches, including a recent defeat to Jiri Lehecka at the French Open. Conversely, Kovacevic has also experienced challenges, losing two out of his last three matches, including a recent loss to Federico Agustin Gomez in the same tournament. Despite the losses, Kovacevic managed to secure a win against Vitaliy Sachko in Hamburg, showcasing his capability to perform well when conditions suit him.

Final Prediction

Jordan Thompson's superior mean return index, combined with his slightly higher ranking, gives him a marginal edge in this matchup. A key factor to watch will be how each player adapts to the grass surface, particularly Thompson's ability to leverage his returning skills against Kovacevic's serve. This aspect could be pivotal in determining the outcome of the match.

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