Shanghai China Hard Masters 1000 Round of 128

Jordan Thompson vs August Holmgren Prediction

Jordan Thompson

Rank: #78
46%
VS

August Holmgren

Rank: #176
54%
Predicted Games Played: 23.0
Predicted Winner: August Holmgren

Ranking Trends

Jordan Thompson

  • Current Rank: #78 (2025-09-22)
  • 3 Months Ago: #44 (2025-06-30)
  • 6 Months Ago: #35 (2025-03-31)
  • 9 Months Ago: #26 (2024-12-30)
  • 12 Months Ago: #28 (2024-09-30)

August Holmgren

  • Current Rank: #176 (2025-09-22)
  • 3 Months Ago: #192 (2025-06-30)
  • 6 Months Ago: #202 (2025-03-31)
  • 9 Months Ago: #200 (2024-12-30)
  • 12 Months Ago: #167 (2024-09-30)

Player Metrics

Jordan Thompson

Form Index: 28.3
ELO Rating: 1257.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1587.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 13.0
Clay: 11.7
Grass: 13.4
Serve Rating: 97.5
Return Rating: 86.6

August Holmgren

Form Index: 57.8
ELO Rating: 575.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1534.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 252.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 2.6
Clay: 2.7
Grass: 5.0
Serve Rating: 93.1
Return Rating: 82.8

Recent Matches

Jordan Thompson
❌ ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Brandon Nakashima (1-2) hard Tokio 184 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Alejandro Tabilo (0-2) hard Chengdu 79 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Adrian Mannarino (1-3) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Corentin Moutet (3-1) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Adrian Mannarino (0-2) hard Cincinnati 88 min

August Holmgren
✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Gauthier Onclin (2-0) hard Shanghai 115 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Chun-Hsin Tseng (2-1) hard Shanghai 137 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Zachary Svajda (0-2) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Alex de Minaur (0-3) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Tomas Machac (3-2) grass Wimbledon 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Jordan Thompson
vs
0
August Holmgren
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The match between Jordan Thompson and August Holmgren in the Round of 128 at the Shanghai Masters 1000 promises to be an intriguing contest on hard court. With a slight edge given to Holmgren, the prediction favors him as the winner with a 54.04% probability compared to Thompson's 45.96%. The expected total number of games played in this encounter is projected at 23.0.

Match Analysis

Jordan Thompson, currently ranked 78, has a form index of 28.33, indicating a struggle in recent performances. His Elo rating stands at 1257.68, reflecting a decent level of play, but he has shown signs of fatigue with a cumulative fatigue of 0 minutes from the current tournament. On the other hand, August Holmgren, ranked 176, possesses a higher form index of 57.79, showcasing an upswing in his performance. However, he has accumulated significant fatigue, totaling 252 minutes. Thompson exhibits a stronger mean serve index of 97.50 compared to Holmgren's 93.12, a difference of over 4 points, while their mean return indices are closer, with Thompson at 86.57 and Holmgren at 82.84. Examining recent performances, Thompson has struggled, losing all his last three matches, including recent defeats at the hands of Brandon Nakashima and Alejandro Tabilo. His inability to secure wins may impact his confidence going into this match. Conversely, Holmgren has shown resilience, winning his last two matches in Shanghai against Gauthier Onclin and Chun-Hsin Tseng, which sets a positive tone for his performance moving forward.

Final Prediction

Holmgren's recent form and winning momentum give him an advantage in this matchup, despite his lower rank. A key factor to watch will be Thompson's ability to leverage his superior serve, as it could be decisive in determining the outcome of the match.